Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Stephanie Luciano won · SUB R3

Elo1515

Elo1447

Stephanie LucianovsRavena OliveiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · Saturday, October 18, 2025Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Official fight result

Stephanie Luciano won

SUB · Round 3 · 2:50

Model Prediction: Stephanie Luciano wins(70.5%)

Actual result: Stephanie Luciano wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Stephanie Luciano at -330 American odds

+$30 profit

$130 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stephanie Luciano threatens submissions; Ravena Oliveira has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Stephanie Luciano has 18pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stephanie Luciano has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Stephanie Luciano

Red Corner

Ravena Oliveira

Blue Corner

-330

(77%)

Vegas Odds

+265

(27%)

1515

Elo

1447

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'6"

Height

5'5"

165.1 cm

Reach

165.1 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Stephanie Luciano

oldest →

vs Talita Alencar · Aug 24

vs Sam Hughes · Mar 25

latest

Ravena OliveiraL2 streak

oldest →

vs Tainara Lisboa · Oct 23

KOvs Shanelle Dyer · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Stephanie LucianoMetricRavena Oliveira

5.20

Strikes / min

1.91

3.04

Strikes absorbed / min

3.72

64%

Strike defense

46%

1.30

TDs / 15 min

0.88

80%

Takedown defense

46%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.16Δ 3.97 — meaningful gap-1.81

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Stephanie LucianoRavena Oliveira

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Stephanie Luciano(3 fights)Ravena Oliveira(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +67.3|Blue -67.3

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -518.0|Blue +518.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Stephanie LucianoTargetRavena Oliveira

By target zone

32% acc · 37%

Head

18% acc · 58%

61% acc · 23%

Body

60% acc · 13%

75% acc · 40%

Leg

32% acc · 29%

By position

45% acc · 77%

Distance

24% acc · 100%

83% acc · 8%

Clinch

0% acc

56% acc · 15%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Stephanie Luciano rounds

even

Ravena Oliveira rounds

Round 1Stephanie Luciano edged it

Sig. strikes25

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Stephanie Luciano edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns1

Control0:58

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Stephanie Luciano edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns2

Control1:55

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

60 / 124

Sig Strikes

24 / 103

51%

Sig Str %

19.3%

80 / 153

Total Strikes

36 / 118

3 / 4

TDs

0 / 0

75%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:53

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ravena Oliveira	14 / 54	14 / 54	0 / 0	0
1	Stephanie Luciano	25 / 56	25 / 56	0 / 0	0
2	Ravena Oliveira	9 / 41	13 / 45	0 / 0	0
2	Stephanie Luciano	26 / 53	39 / 67	1 / 2	0
3	Ravena Oliveira	1 / 8	9 / 19	0 / 0	0
3	Stephanie Luciano	9 / 15	16 / 30	2 / 2	1

Stephanie Luciano

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights3

Ravena Oliveira

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach65.0"

Fights3