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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Stephan Bonnar won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1353

Stephan BonnarvsKyle KingsburyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 139: Shogun vs Henderson · Saturday, November 19, 2011San Jose, California, USA

Official fight result

Stephan Bonnar won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupStephan Bonnar: Submission grapplervsKyle Kingsbury: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Kyle Kingsbury wins(69.5%)

Actual result: Stephan Bonnar wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Kyle Kingsbury at -148 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Kyle Kingsbury enters on a 3-fight losing streak.

Tale of the Tape

Stephan Bonnar

Red Corner

Kyle Kingsbury

Blue Corner

+138

(42%)

Vegas Odds

-148

(60%)

1490

Elo

1353

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'4"

200.66 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Stephan Bonnar

oldest →

KOvs Krzysztof Soszynski · Jul 10

vs Igor Pokrajac · Dec 10

KOvs Anderson Silva · Oct 12

latest

Kyle KingsburyL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Ricardo Romero · Feb 11

vs Fabio Maldonado · Jun 11

SUBvs Glover Teixeira · May 12

KOvs Jimi Manuwa · Sep 12

vs Patrick Cummins · Jul 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Stephan BonnarMetricKyle Kingsbury

2.76

Strikes / min

2.97

3.01

Strikes absorbed / min

3.81

52%

Strike defense

51%

1.32

TDs / 15 min

2.64

60%

Takedown defense

52%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.25evenly matched on net striking-0.84

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Stephan BonnarKyle Kingsbury

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Stephan Bonnar(4 fights)Kyle Kingsbury(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +136.8|Blue -136.8

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +182.0|Blue -182.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Stephan BonnarTargetKyle Kingsbury

By target zone

35% acc · 50%

Head

45% acc · 48%

79% acc · 31%

Body

78% acc · 23%

78% acc · 19%

Leg

82% acc · 29%

By position

33% acc · 33%

Distance

51% acc · 61%

79% acc · 42%

Clinch

75% acc · 39%

47% acc · 25%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Stephan Bonnar rounds

even

Kyle Kingsbury rounds

Round 1Stephan Bonnar edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns1

Control1:34

23Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:58Control

Round 2Stephan Bonnar edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns1

Control4:26

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Stephan Bonnar edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns2

Control4:38

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 74

Sig Strikes

31 / 53

41.7%

Sig Str %

51%

133 / 183

Total Strikes

38 / 60

4 / 6

TDs

0 / 0

77.7%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

10:38

Ctrl Time

0:58

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kyle Kingsbury	23 / 36	29 / 42	0 / 0	0
1	Stephan Bonnar	27 / 48	43 / 68	1 / 3	0
2	Kyle Kingsbury	6 / 12	7 / 13	0 / 0	0
2	Stephan Bonnar	3 / 13	45 / 59	1 / 1	1
3	Kyle Kingsbury	2 / 5	2 / 5	0 / 0	0
3	Stephan Bonnar	6 / 13	45 / 56	2 / 2	0

Stephan Bonnar

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights4

Kyle Kingsbury

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights7