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Light Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Stephan Bonnar won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1357

Stephan BonnarvsIgor PokrajacUFC Prediction Result

The Ultimate Fighter: Team GSP vs Team Koscheck Finale · Saturday, December 4, 2010Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Stephan Bonnar won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Stephan Bonnar wins(66.4%)

Actual result: Stephan Bonnar wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Stephan Bonnar at -240 American odds

+$42 profit

$142 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Igor Pokrajac enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Stephan Bonnar has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stephan Bonnar has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Stephan Bonnar

Red Corner

Igor Pokrajac

Blue Corner

-240

(71%)

Vegas Odds

+220

(31%)

1490

Elo

1357

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'0"

200.66 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Stephan Bonnar

oldest →

KOvs Krzysztof Soszynski · Jul 10

vs Kyle Kingsbury · Nov 11

KOvs Anderson Silva · Oct 12

latest

Igor PokrajacL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Vinny Magalhaes · Sep 12

vs Ryan Jimmo · Jun 13

KOvs Rafael Feijao · Nov 13

KOvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Dec 14

vs Jan Blachowicz · Apr 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Stephan BonnarMetricIgor Pokrajac

2.76

Strikes / min

2.25

3.01

Strikes absorbed / min

4.26

52%

Strike defense

40%

1.32

TDs / 15 min

0.87

60%

Takedown defense

51%

1.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.25Δ 1.76 — meaningful gap-2.01

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Stephan BonnarIgor Pokrajac

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Stephan Bonnar(4 fights)Igor Pokrajac(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +133.5|Blue -133.5

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +29.0|Blue -29.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Stephan BonnarTargetIgor Pokrajac

By target zone

38% acc · 43%

Head

34% acc · 70%

82% acc · 52%

Body

83% acc · 22%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

100% acc · 9%

By position

36% acc · 23%

Distance

26% acc · 43%

62% acc · 36%

Clinch

75% acc · 39%

69% acc · 41%

Ground

80% acc · 17%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Stephan Bonnar rounds

even

Igor Pokrajac rounds

Round 1Stephan Bonnar edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control3:33

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:46Control

Round 2Stephan Bonnar edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control3:45

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:31Control

Round 3Stephan Bonnar edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control4:39

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

44 / 80

Sig Strikes

23 / 55

56%

Sig Str %

49.3%

147 / 199

Total Strikes

40 / 73

3 / 5

TDs

0 / 1

77.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

11:57

Ctrl Time

1:23

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Igor Pokrajac	8 / 18	11 / 21	0 / 0	0
1	Stephan Bonnar	13 / 24	28 / 43	1 / 1	1
2	Igor Pokrajac	13 / 34	15 / 36	0 / 1	0
2	Stephan Bonnar	19 / 37	52 / 75	1 / 3	0
3	Igor Pokrajac	2 / 3	14 / 16	0 / 0	0
3	Stephan Bonnar	12 / 19	67 / 81	1 / 1	0

Stephan Bonnar

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights4

Igor Pokrajac

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights10