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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Tai Tuivasa won · KO/TKO

Elo1391

Elo1453

Stefan StruvevsTai TuivasaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · Saturday, October 24, 2020Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Tai Tuivasa won

KO/TKO

Style matchupStefan Struve: Well-roundedvsTai Tuivasa: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Tai Tuivasa wins(58.3%)

Actual result: Tai Tuivasa wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Tai Tuivasa at -112 American odds

+$89 profit

$189 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Tai Tuivasa enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Tai Tuivasa is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Stefan Struve has lost 70% of fights by KO.
Stefan Struve threatens submissions; Tai Tuivasa has lost 30% of fights by sub.
Stance matchup historically favors Tai Tuivasa (53.5%).
Stefan Struve has a 23cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Stefan Struve

Red Corner

Tai Tuivasa

Blue Corner

-112

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-112

(53%)

1391

Elo

1453

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'11"

Height

6'2"

213.36 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Stefan Struve

oldest →

KOvs Alexander Volkov · Sep 17

vs Andrei Arlovski · Mar 18

vs Marcin Tybura · Jul 18

SUBvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Feb 19

KOvs Ben Rothwell · Dec 19

latest

Tai TuivasaL5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Alexander Volkov · Sep 23

SUBvs Marcin Tybura · Mar 24

vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Aug 24

vs Tallison Teixeira · Jan 26

DECvs Louie Sutherland · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Stefan StruveMetricTai Tuivasa

3.12

Strikes / min

3.37

4.04

Strikes absorbed / min

4.61

46%

Strike defense

42%

0.56

TDs / 15 min

0.00

55%

Takedown defense

58%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.92evenly matched on net striking-1.24

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Stefan StruveTai Tuivasa

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Stefan Struve(10 fights)Tai Tuivasa(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -62.1|Blue +62.1

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -63.0|Blue +63.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Stefan StruveTargetTai Tuivasa

By target zone

67% acc · 31%

Head

54% acc · 56%

50% acc · 31%

Body

100% acc · 15%

100% acc · 38%

Leg

80% acc · 30%

By position

68% acc · 100%

Distance

50% acc · 52%

Clinch

91% acc · 37%

Ground

100% acc · 11%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Stefan Struve rounds

even

Tai Tuivasa rounds

Round 1Tai Tuivasa edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:44Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 19

Sig Strikes

27 / 42

68%

Sig Str %

64%

13 / 19

Total Strikes

48 / 63

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

1:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Tai Tuivasa	27 / 42	48 / 63	0 / 0	0
1	Stefan Struve	13 / 19	13 / 19	0 / 1	0

Stefan Struve

StanceOrthodox

Height83.0"

Reach84.0"

Fights20

Tai Tuivasa

StanceSouthpaw

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights17