← All fights/Event page

Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Mark Hunt won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1391

Elo1369

Stefan StruvevsMark HuntUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann · Saturday, March 2, 2013Saitama, Japan

Official fight result

Mark Hunt won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:44

Style matchupStefan Struve: Well-roundedvsMark Hunt: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Stefan Struve wins(54.3%)

Actual result: Mark Hunt wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Stefan Struve at -205 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mark Hunt enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Stefan Struve is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Mark Hunt has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Mark Hunt is a KO finisher (88% of wins). Stefan Struve has lost 70% of fights by KO.
Stefan Struve has a 30cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Stefan Struve

Red Corner

Mark Hunt

Blue Corner

-205

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+188

(35%)

1391

Elo

1369

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'11"

Height

5'10"

213.36 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Stefan StruveL2 streak

oldest →

vs Andrei Arlovski · Mar 18

vs Marcin Tybura · Jul 18

SUBvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Feb 19

KOvs Ben Rothwell · Dec 19

KOvs Tai Tuivasa · Oct 20

latest

Mark HuntL3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alistair Overeem · Mar 17

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Jun 17

vs Curtis Blaydes · Feb 18

SUBvs Aleksei Oleinik · Sep 18

vs Justin Willis · Dec 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Stefan StruveMetricMark Hunt

3.12

Strikes / min

2.81

4.04

Strikes absorbed / min

2.90

46%

Strike defense

51%

0.56

TDs / 15 min

0.51

55%

Takedown defense

64%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.92evenly matched on net striking-0.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Stefan StruveMark Hunt

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Stefan Struve(10 fights)Mark Hunt(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +21.5|Blue -21.5

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -217.0|Blue +217.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Stefan StruveTargetMark Hunt

By target zone

32% acc · 79%

Head

53% acc · 79%

100% acc · 17%

Body

80% acc · 17%

33% acc · 4%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

36% acc · 88%

Distance

58% acc · 96%

Clinch

33% acc · 13%

Ground

40% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Stefan Struve rounds

even

Mark Hunt rounds

Round 1Mark Hunt edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control1:29

7Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:56Control

Round 2Mark Hunt edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:34

20Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:56Control

Round 3Mark Hunt edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

20Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

24 / 67

Sig Strikes

47 / 82

34%

Sig Str %

54.7%

56 / 116

Total Strikes

61 / 100

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 2

—

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

2:03

Ctrl Time

3:57

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Mark Hunt	7 / 17	16 / 29	0 / 0	0
1	Stefan Struve	4 / 17	12 / 29	0 / 0	0
2	Mark Hunt	20 / 35	25 / 41	1 / 2	0
2	Stefan Struve	9 / 21	33 / 58	0 / 0	1
3	Mark Hunt	20 / 30	20 / 30	0 / 0	0
3	Stefan Struve	11 / 29	11 / 29	0 / 0	0

Stefan Struve

StanceOrthodox

Height83.0"

Reach84.0"

Fights20

Mark Hunt

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights16