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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Stefan Struve won · SUB R2

Elo1391

Elo1506

Stefan StruvevsMarcos Rogerio de LimaUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Santos · Saturday, February 23, 2019Prague, Czech Republic

Official fight result

Stefan Struve won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:21

Style matchupStefan Struve: Well-roundedvsMarcos Rogerio de Lima: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Marcos Rogerio de Lima wins(52.6%)

Actual result: Stefan Struve wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Marcos Rogerio de Lima at -105 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stefan Struve enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
Marcos Rogerio de Lima is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Stefan Struve has lost 70% of fights by KO.
Stefan Struve threatens submissions; Marcos Rogerio de Lima has lost 71% of fights by sub.
Stefan Struve has a 23cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Stefan Struve

Red Corner

Marcos Rogerio de Lima

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1391

Elo

1506

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'11"

Height

6'1"

213.36 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Stefan StruveL5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alexander Volkov · Sep 17

vs Andrei Arlovski · Mar 18

vs Marcin Tybura · Jul 18

KOvs Ben Rothwell · Dec 19

KOvs Tai Tuivasa · Oct 20

latest

Marcos Rogerio de Lima

oldest →

vs Blagoy Ivanov · May 22

SUBvs Andrei Arlovski · Oct 22

vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Apr 23

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Jul 23

KOvs Junior Tafa · Feb 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Stefan StruveMetricMarcos Rogerio de Lima

3.12

Strikes / min

3.70

4.04

Strikes absorbed / min

2.90

46%

Strike defense

51%

0.56

TDs / 15 min

1.40

55%

Takedown defense

59%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.50

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.92Δ 1.72 — meaningful gap+0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Stefan StruveMarcos Rogerio de Lima

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Stefan Struve(10 fights)Marcos Rogerio de Lima(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -115.5|Blue +115.5

Recent Form

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +104.0|Blue -104.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Stefan StruveTargetMarcos Rogerio de Lima

By target zone

0% acc

Head

72% acc · 72%

0% acc

Body

100% acc · 28%

Leg

By position

0% acc

Distance

17% acc · 4%

Clinch

Ground

92% acc · 96%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Stefan Struve rounds

even

Marcos Rogerio de Lima rounds

Round 1Marcos Rogerio de Lima edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

4:55Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Stefan Struve edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns1

Control1:51

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:22Control

Fight Stats

Totals

0 / 3

Sig Strikes

25 / 32

Sig Str %

44.5%

2 / 7

Total Strikes

68 / 79

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 0

100%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

1:51

Ctrl Time

5:17

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Marcos Rogerio de Lima	25 / 28	65 / 72	0 / 0	0
1	Stefan Struve	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0
2	Marcos Rogerio de Lima	0 / 4	3 / 7	0 / 0	0
2	Stefan Struve	0 / 2	2 / 6	1 / 1	1

Stefan Struve

StanceOrthodox

Height83.0"

Reach84.0"

Fights20

Marcos Rogerio de Lima

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights17