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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Stefan Struve won · SUB R1

Elo1391

Elo1352

Stefan StruvevsLavar JohnsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir · Saturday, May 26, 2012Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Stefan Struve won

SUB · Round 1 · 1:05

Style matchupStefan Struve: Well-roundedvsLavar Johnson: Elusive striker

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Lavar Johnson wins(64.3%)

Actual result: Stefan Struve wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Lavar Johnson at +120 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Lavar Johnson is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Stefan Struve has lost 70% of fights by KO.
Stefan Struve threatens submissions; Lavar Johnson has lost 50% of fights by sub.

Tale of the Tape

Stefan Struve

Red Corner

Lavar Johnson

Blue Corner

-130

(57%)

Vegas Odds

+120

(45%)

1391

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'11"

Height

6'4"

213.36 cm

Reach

208.28 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Stefan StruveL2 streak

oldest →

vs Andrei Arlovski · Mar 18

vs Marcin Tybura · Jul 18

SUBvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Feb 19

KOvs Ben Rothwell · Dec 19

KOvs Tai Tuivasa · Oct 20

latest

Lavar Johnson

oldest →

KOvs Joey Beltran · Jan 12

KOvs Pat Barry · May 12

vs Brendan Schaub · Feb 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Stefan StruveMetricLavar Johnson

3.12

Strikes / min

5.39

4.04

Strikes absorbed / min

2.54

46%

Strike defense

55%

0.56

TDs / 15 min

0.61

55%

Takedown defense

54%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.92Δ 3.77 — meaningful gap+2.85

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Stefan StruveLavar Johnson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Stefan Struve(10 fights)Lavar Johnson(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +38.6|Blue -38.6

Recent Form

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Striker Score

Red -1.2|Blue +1.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Layoff

Red +80.0|Blue -80.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Stefan StruveTargetLavar Johnson

By target zone

Head

40% acc · 50%

Body

100% acc · 50%

Leg

By position

Distance

57% acc · 100%

Clinch

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Stefan Struve rounds

even

Lavar Johnson rounds

Round 1Lavar Johnson edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:00

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:53Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

0 / 0

Sig Strikes

4 / 7

—

Sig Str %

57%

0 / 0

Total Strikes

7 / 12

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:53

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Lavar Johnson	4 / 7	7 / 12	0 / 0	0
1	Stefan Struve	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1

Stefan Struve

StanceOrthodox

Height83.0"

Reach84.0"

Fights20

Lavar Johnson

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach82.0"

Fights4