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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Jared Rosholt won · U-DEC R3

Elo1391

Elo1490

Stefan StruvevsJared RosholtUFC Prediction Result

UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm · Saturday, November 14, 2015Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Official fight result

Jared Rosholt won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Jared Rosholt wins(69.6%)

Actual result: Jared Rosholt wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jared Rosholt at +140 American odds

+$140 profit

$240 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stefan Struve is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Jared Rosholt has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Jared Rosholt has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stefan Struve has a 23cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Stefan Struve

Red Corner

Jared Rosholt

Blue Corner

-160

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1391

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'11"

Height

6'2"

213.36 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Stefan StruveL2 streak

oldest →

vs Andrei Arlovski · Mar 18

vs Marcin Tybura · Jul 18

SUBvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Feb 19

KOvs Ben Rothwell · Dec 19

KOvs Tai Tuivasa · Oct 20

latest

Jared Rosholt

oldest →

vs Soa Palelei · Jun 14

KOvs Aleksei Oleinik · Nov 14

KOvs Josh Copeland · Mar 15

DECvs Tim Johnson · Aug 15

vs Roy Nelson · Feb 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Stefan StruveMetricJared Rosholt

3.12

Strikes / min

2.08

4.04

Strikes absorbed / min

1.52

46%

Strike defense

59%

0.56

TDs / 15 min

1.83

55%

Takedown defense

66%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.92Δ 1.48 — meaningful gap+0.56

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Stefan StruveJared Rosholt

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Stefan Struve(10 fights)Jared Rosholt(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -99.9|Blue +99.9

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red +7.0|Blue -7.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Stefan StruveTargetJared Rosholt

By target zone

56% acc · 70%

Head

26% acc · 38%

50% acc · 21%

Body

40% acc · 13%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

89% acc · 50%

By position

50% acc · 64%

Distance

41% acc · 69%

50% acc · 3%

Clinch

0% acc

79% acc · 33%

Ground

56% acc · 31%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Stefan Struve rounds

even

Jared Rosholt rounds

Round 1Jared Rosholt edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:46Control

Round 2Jared Rosholt edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

2Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:12Control

Round 3Stefan Struve edged it

Sig. strikes18

Takedowns1

Control0:19

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:47Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

33 / 58

Sig Strikes

16 / 37

57.3%

Sig Str %

38.7%

34 / 59

Total Strikes

38 / 59

1 / 1

TDs

4 / 7

100%

TD %

66.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:19

Ctrl Time

6:45

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jared Rosholt	10 / 18	20 / 28	1 / 1
1	Stefan Struve	5 / 8	6 / 9	0 / 0
2	Jared Rosholt	2 / 7	14 / 19	2 / 3
2	Stefan Struve	10 / 19	10 / 19	0 / 0
3	Jared Rosholt	4 / 12	4 / 12	1 / 3
3	Stefan Struve	18 / 31	18 / 31	1 / 1

Stefan Struve

StanceOrthodox

Height83.0"

Reach84.0"

Fights20

Jared Rosholt

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights8