← All fights/Event page

Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Stefan Struve won · SUB R2

Elo1391

Elo1361

Stefan StruvevsDaniel OmielanczukUFC Prediction Result

UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson · Saturday, October 8, 2016Manchester, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Stefan Struve won

SUB · Round 2 · 1:41

Style matchupStefan Struve: Well-roundedvsDaniel Omielanczuk: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Daniel Omielanczuk wins(71.6%)

Actual result: Stefan Struve wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Daniel Omielanczuk at +165 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Daniel Omielanczuk is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Stefan Struve has lost 70% of fights by KO.
Stance matchup historically favors Daniel Omielanczuk (53.5%).
Stefan Struve has a 25cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Stefan Struve

Red Corner

Daniel Omielanczuk

Blue Corner

-190

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+165

(38%)

1391

Elo

1361

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

6'11"

Height

6'0"

213.36 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Stefan StruveL2 streak

oldest →

vs Andrei Arlovski · Mar 18

vs Marcin Tybura · Jul 18

SUBvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Feb 19

KOvs Ben Rothwell · Dec 19

KOvs Tai Tuivasa · Oct 20

latest

Daniel OmielanczukL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Chris de la Rocha · Jul 15

vs Jarjis Danho · Feb 16

vs Aleksei Oleinik · Jul 16

DECvs Tim Johnson · Mar 17

vs Curtis Blaydes · Jul 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Stefan StruveMetricDaniel Omielanczuk

3.12

Strikes / min

3.09

4.04

Strikes absorbed / min

3.29

46%

Strike defense

47%

0.56

TDs / 15 min

0.56

55%

Takedown defense

68%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.92evenly matched on net striking-0.20

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Stefan StruveDaniel Omielanczuk

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Stefan Struve(10 fights)Daniel Omielanczuk(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +29.6|Blue -29.6

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +66.0|Blue -66.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Stefan StruveTargetDaniel Omielanczuk

By target zone

30% acc · 33%

Head

35% acc · 43%

46% acc · 67%

Body

33% acc · 14%

Leg

86% acc · 43%

By position

38% acc · 89%

Distance

44% acc · 86%

100% acc · 11%

Clinch

67% acc · 14%

0% acc

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Stefan Struve rounds

even

Daniel Omielanczuk rounds

Round 1Stefan Struve edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control2:14

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns1

Control0:32

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:51Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 23

Sig Strikes

14 / 30

44%

Sig Str %

70%

12 / 26

Total Strikes

21 / 39

2 / 4

TDs

0 / 1

50%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

2:46

Ctrl Time

1:10

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Daniel Omielanczuk	11 / 27	17 / 35	0 / 0	0
1	Stefan Struve	8 / 21	11 / 24	1 / 2	0
2	Daniel Omielanczuk	3 / 3	4 / 4	0 / 1	0
2	Stefan Struve	1 / 2	1 / 2	1 / 2	1

Stefan Struve

StanceOrthodox

Height83.0"

Reach84.0"

Fights20

Daniel Omielanczuk

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights9