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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Stefan Struve won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1391

Elo1351

Stefan StruvevsChristian MorecraftUFC Prediction Result

UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen · Saturday, August 7, 2010Oakland, California, USA

Official fight result

Stefan Struve won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 0:22

Style matchupStefan Struve: Well-roundedvsChristian Morecraft: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Stefan Struve wins(72.1%)

Actual result: Stefan Struve wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Stefan Struve at -200 American odds

+$50 profit

$150 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stefan Struve is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Christian Morecraft has lost 100% of fights by KO.

Tale of the Tape

Stefan Struve

Red Corner

Christian Morecraft

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1391

Elo

1351

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'11"

Height

6'6"

213.36 cm

Reach

205.74 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Stefan StruveL2 streak

oldest →

vs Andrei Arlovski · Mar 18

vs Marcin Tybura · Jul 18

SUBvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Feb 19

KOvs Ben Rothwell · Dec 19

KOvs Tai Tuivasa · Oct 20

latest

Christian MorecraftL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Sean McCorkle · Mar 11

KOvs Matt Mitrione · Jun 11

KOvs Pat Barry · Jan 12

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Stefan StruveMetricChristian Morecraft

3.12

Strikes / min

2.82

4.04

Strikes absorbed / min

2.46

46%

Strike defense

46%

0.56

TDs / 15 min

3.26

55%

Takedown defense

50%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

2.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.92Δ 1.28 — meaningful gap+0.36

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Stefan StruveChristian Morecraft

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Stefan Struve(10 fights)Christian Morecraft(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +39.3|Blue -39.3

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -48.8|Blue +48.8

Grappler Score

Red -49.2|Blue +49.2

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Stefan StruveTargetChristian Morecraft

By target zone

56% acc · 91%

Head

48% acc · 92%

Body

100% acc · 8%

100% acc · 9%

Leg

By position

42% acc · 45%

Distance

25% acc · 11%

Clinch

50% acc · 3%

86% acc · 55%

Ground

57% acc · 86%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Stefan Struve rounds

even

Christian Morecraft rounds

Round 1Christian Morecraft edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns0

Control0:02

31Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:39Control

Round 2Stefan Struve edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:05

Knockdowns1

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:05Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 19

Sig Strikes

36 / 72

57%

Sig Str %

45%

12 / 20

Total Strikes

60 / 101

0 / 0

TDs

1 / 1

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:07

Ctrl Time

4:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Christian Morecraft	31 / 59	55 / 88	1 / 1	1
1	Stefan Struve	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2
2	Christian Morecraft	5 / 13	5 / 13	0 / 0	0
2	Stefan Struve	11 / 19	12 / 20	0 / 0	0

Stefan Struve

StanceOrthodox

Height83.0"

Reach84.0"

Fights20

Christian Morecraft

StanceOrthodox

Height78.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights4