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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Ben Rothwell won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1391

Elo1494

Stefan StruvevsBen RothwellUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · Saturday, December 7, 2019Washington, DC, USA

Official fight result

Ben Rothwell won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:57

Style matchupStefan Struve: Well-roundedvsBen Rothwell: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Stefan Struve wins(54.5%)

Actual result: Ben Rothwell wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Stefan Struve at +130 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ben Rothwell has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stefan Struve has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Stefan Struve

Red Corner

Ben Rothwell

Blue Corner

+130

(43%)

Vegas Odds

-150

(60%)

1391

Elo

1494

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'11"

Height

6'4"

213.36 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Stefan Struve

oldest →

KOvs Alexander Volkov · Sep 17

vs Andrei Arlovski · Mar 18

vs Marcin Tybura · Jul 18

SUBvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Feb 19

KOvs Tai Tuivasa · Oct 20

latest

Ben Rothwell

oldest →

vs Andrei Arlovski · Jul 19

vs Ovince Saint Preux · May 20

vs Marcin Tybura · Oct 20

SUBvs Chris Barnett · May 21

KOvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Nov 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Stefan StruveMetricBen Rothwell

3.12

Strikes / min

3.71

4.04

Strikes absorbed / min

4.63

46%

Strike defense

47%

0.56

TDs / 15 min

0.68

55%

Takedown defense

70%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.92evenly matched on net striking-0.92

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Stefan StruveBen Rothwell

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Stefan Struve(10 fights)Ben Rothwell(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -103.5|Blue +103.5

Recent Form

Red +0.9|Blue -0.9

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +147.0|Blue -147.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Stefan StruveTargetBen Rothwell

By target zone

46% acc · 34%

Head

49% acc · 71%

91% acc · 38%

Body

100% acc · 22%

94% acc · 28%

Leg

80% acc · 7%

By position

66% acc · 87%

Distance

50% acc · 57%

100% acc · 13%

Clinch

69% acc · 34%

Ground

83% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Stefan Struve rounds

even

Ben Rothwell rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes23

Takedowns0

Control0:03

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:12Control

Round 2Ben Rothwell edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

39Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:26Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

53 / 77

Sig Strikes

58 / 101

69.5%

Sig Str %

58.5%

63 / 87

Total Strikes

71 / 114

0 / 1

TDs

0 / 1

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:03

Ctrl Time

4:38

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ben Rothwell	19 / 30	23 / 34	0 / 1
1	Stefan Struve	23 / 30	28 / 35	0 / 1
2	Ben Rothwell	39 / 71	48 / 80	0 / 0
2	Stefan Struve	30 / 47	35 / 52	0 / 0

Stefan Struve

StanceOrthodox

Height83.0"

Reach84.0"

Fights20

Ben Rothwell

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights16