← All fights/Event page

Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Andrei Arlovski won · U-DEC R3

Elo1391

Elo1492

Stefan StruvevsAndrei ArlovskiUFC Prediction Result

UFC 222: Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya · Saturday, March 3, 2018Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Andrei Arlovski won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupStefan Struve: Well-roundedvsAndrei Arlovski: Striker

The well-rounded fighter has more paths to victory. The striker needs to be sharp early.

Model Prediction: Andrei Arlovski wins(59.8%)

Actual result: Andrei Arlovski wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Andrei Arlovski at +160 American odds

+$160 profit

$260 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Andrei Arlovski enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Andrei Arlovski has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Andrei Arlovski has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stefan Struve has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Stefan Struve

Red Corner

Andrei Arlovski

Blue Corner

-185

(65%)

Vegas Odds

+160

(38%)

1391

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'11"

Height

6'3"

213.36 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Stefan StruveL2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Alexander Volkov · Sep 17

vs Marcin Tybura · Jul 18

SUBvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Feb 19

KOvs Ben Rothwell · Dec 19

KOvs Tai Tuivasa · Oct 20

latest

Andrei ArlovskiL4 streak

oldest →

vs Jake Collier · Apr 22

SUBvs Marcos Rogerio de Lima · Oct 22

KOvs Don'Tale Mayes · Jun 23

vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta · Jan 24

vs Martin Buday · Jun 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Stefan StruveMetricAndrei Arlovski

3.12

Strikes / min

3.82

4.04

Strikes absorbed / min

3.22

46%

Strike defense

57%

0.56

TDs / 15 min

0.37

55%

Takedown defense

76%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.92Δ 1.52 — meaningful gap+0.60

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Stefan StruveAndrei Arlovski

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Stefan Struve(10 fights)Andrei Arlovski(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -101.8|Blue +101.8

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Stefan StruveTargetAndrei Arlovski

By target zone

23% acc · 26%

Head

29% acc · 26%

50% acc · 24%

Body

62% acc · 35%

94% acc · 50%

Leg

90% acc · 39%

By position

46% acc · 94%

Distance

51% acc · 91%

Clinch

67% acc · 4%

40% acc · 6%

Ground

67% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Stefan Struve rounds

even

Andrei Arlovski rounds

Round 1Andrei Arlovski edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns0

Control0:01

14Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:42Control

Round 2Andrei Arlovski edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control1:16

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:41Control

Round 3Andrei Arlovski edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:08Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

34 / 74

Sig Strikes

46 / 88

45.3%

Sig Str %

50.3%

37 / 78

Total Strikes

76 / 121

0 / 3

TDs

4 / 9

TD %

52.7%

Sub Att

Rev

1:17

Ctrl Time

4:31

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Andrei Arlovski	14 / 25	20 / 33	2 / 2
1	Stefan Struve	14 / 24	14 / 24	0 / 1
2	Andrei Arlovski	8 / 20	14 / 26	1 / 3
2	Stefan Struve	7 / 18	10 / 22	0 / 1
3	Andrei Arlovski	24 / 43	42 / 62	1 / 4
3	Stefan Struve	13 / 32	13 / 32	0 / 1

Stefan Struve

StanceOrthodox

Height83.0"

Reach84.0"

Fights20

Andrei Arlovski

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights27