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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Bill Algeo won · U-DEC

Elo1392

Elo1498

Spike CarlylevsBill AlgeoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark · Saturday, November 28, 2020Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Bill Algeo won

U-DEC

Style matchupSpike Carlyle: WrestlervsBill Algeo: Pressure fighter

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Bill Algeo wins(66.6%)

Actual result: Bill Algeo wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Bill Algeo at +140 American odds

+$140 profit

$240 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Bill Algeo has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Spike Carlyle

Red Corner

Bill Algeo

Blue Corner

-177

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1392

Elo

1498

Age

Switch

Stance

Switch

5'8"

Height

6'0"

180.34 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Spike Carlyle

oldest →

KOvs Aalon Cruz · Feb 20

vs Billy Quarantillo · May 20

latest

Bill AlgeoL2 streak

oldest →

vs Andre Fili · Sep 22

SUBvs TJ Brown · Apr 23

vs Alexander Hernandez · Oct 23

KOvs Kyle Nelson · Mar 24

KOvs Dooho Choi · Jul 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Spike CarlyleMetricBill Algeo

2.55

Strikes / min

5.88

3.85

Strikes absorbed / min

4.38

30%

Strike defense

47%

3.34

TDs / 15 min

1.03

57%

Takedown defense

55%

0.50

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.30Δ 2.80 — meaningful gap+1.50

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Spike CarlyleBill Algeo

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Spike Carlyle(3 fights)Bill Algeo(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -105.5|Blue +105.5

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +91.0|Blue -91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Spike CarlyleTargetBill Algeo

By target zone

38% acc · 61%

Head

70% acc · 63%

38% acc · 13%

Body

78% acc · 26%

75% acc · 26%

Leg

89% acc · 11%

By position

42% acc · 83%

Distance

66% acc · 60%

33% acc · 4%

Clinch

93% acc · 20%

60% acc · 13%

Ground

88% acc · 20%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Spike Carlyle rounds

even

Bill Algeo rounds

Round 1Bill Algeo edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns2

Control1:32

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:27Control

Round 2Bill Algeo edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control1:04

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:10Control

Round 3Bill Algeo edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns1

Control1:42

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:39Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

23 / 53

Sig Strikes

70 / 95

44.3%

Sig Str %

73.3%

28 / 65

Total Strikes

118 / 150

4 / 13

TDs

1 / 3

54%

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

4:18

Ctrl Time

4:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Bill Algeo	26 / 35	36 / 46	0 / 1	0
1	Spike Carlyle	10 / 22	13 / 28	2 / 4	1
2	Bill Algeo	14 / 19	44 / 53	1 / 1	0
2	Spike Carlyle	5 / 10	6 / 13	1 / 1	0
3	Bill Algeo	30 / 41	38 / 51	0 / 1	0
3	Spike Carlyle	8 / 21	9 / 24	1 / 8	0

Spike Carlyle

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights3

Bill Algeo

StanceSwitch

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights10