Lightweight

3 Rounds

Spencer Fisher won · U-DEC R3

Elo1351

Elo1490

Spencer FishervsCurt WarburtonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama · Saturday, October 16, 2010London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Spencer Fisher won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupSpencer Fisher: Well-roundedvsCurt Warburton: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Model Prediction: Spencer Fisher wins(56.2%)

Actual result: Spencer Fisher wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Spencer Fisher at -210 American odds

+$48 profit

$148 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Spencer Fisher enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Spencer Fisher has 21pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Curt Warburton has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Spencer Fisher (53.5%).
Curt Warburton has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Spencer Fisher

Red Corner

Curt Warburton

Blue Corner

-210

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+175

(36%)

1351

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'7"

Height

6'0"

172.72 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Spencer FisherL4 streak

oldest →

vs Dennis Siver · Jun 10

vs Ross Pearson · Feb 11

KOvs Thiago Tavares · Aug 11

vs Sam Stout · Jun 12

latest

Curt Warburton

oldest →

vs Maciej Jewtuszko · Feb 11

SUBvs Joe Lauzon · Jun 11

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Spencer FisherMetricCurt Warburton

3.17

Strikes / min

2.13

3.03

Strikes absorbed / min

3.44

64%

Strike defense

43%

0.67

TDs / 15 min

2.35

60%

Takedown defense

83%

0.80

Sub atts / 15 min

0.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.14Δ 1.45 — meaningful gap-1.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Spencer FisherCurt Warburton

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Spencer Fisher(5 fights)Curt Warburton(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -138.7|Blue +138.7

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -47.8|Blue +47.8

Grappler Score

Red -49.8|Blue +49.8

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Spencer FisherTargetCurt Warburton

By target zone

47% acc · 21%

Head

22% acc · 18%

83% acc · 44%

Body

90% acc · 42%

89% acc · 35%

Leg

78% acc · 40%

By position

53% acc · 35%

Distance

45% acc · 53%

95% acc · 51%

Clinch

89% acc · 38%

82% acc · 13%

Ground

50% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Spencer Fisher rounds

even

Curt Warburton rounds

Round 1Curt Warburton edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

18Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:21Control

Round 2Spencer Fisher edged it

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns1

Control1:10

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:19Control

Round 3Spencer Fisher edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:56

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:01Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

68 / 93

Sig Strikes

45 / 80

70.3%

Sig Str %

57%

170 / 212

Total Strikes

82 / 144

1 / 6

TDs

1 / 3

10%

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

2:06

Ctrl Time

7:41

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Curt Warburton	18 / 26	38 / 57	1 / 1	2
1	Spencer Fisher	9 / 14	38 / 50	0 / 0	0
2	Curt Warburton	16 / 24	27 / 44	0 / 1	0
2	Spencer Fisher	37 / 48	75 / 88	1 / 5	1
3	Curt Warburton	11 / 30	17 / 43	0 / 1	0
3	Spencer Fisher	22 / 31	57 / 74	0 / 1	1

Spencer Fisher

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights5

Curt Warburton

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights3