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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Song Yadong won · U-DEC R3

Elo1518

Elo1475

Song YadongvsMarlon VeraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris · Saturday, May 16, 2020Jacksonville, Florida, USA

Official fight result

Song Yadong won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupSong Yadong: Pressure fightervsMarlon Vera: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Song Yadong wins(61.7%)

Actual result: Song Yadong wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Song Yadong at -200 American odds

+$50 profit

$150 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Marlon Vera enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Stance matchup historically favors Marlon Vera (52.9%).

Tale of the Tape

Song Yadong

Red Corner

Marlon Vera

Blue Corner

-200

(67%)

Vegas Odds

+170

(37%)

1518

Elo

1475

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

5'8"

Height

5'8"

170.18 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Song Yadong

oldest →

vs Chris Gutierrez · Dec 23

vs Petr Yan · Mar 24

vs Henry Cejudo · Feb 25

vs Sean O'Malley · Jan 26

SUBvs Deiveson Figueiredo · May 26

latest

Marlon VeraL4 streak

oldest →

vs Pedro Munhoz · Aug 23

vs Sean O'Malley · Mar 24

vs Deiveson Figueiredo · Aug 24

vs Aiemann Zahabi · Oct 25

vs David Martinez · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Song YadongMetricMarlon Vera

4.42

Strikes / min

4.18

3.94

Strikes absorbed / min

5.34

55%

Strike defense

50%

0.78

TDs / 15 min

0.47

73%

Takedown defense

71%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.48Δ 1.64 — meaningful gap-1.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Song YadongMarlon Vera

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Song Yadong(10 fights)Marlon Vera(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +43.1|Blue -43.1

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red +98.0|Blue -98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Song YadongTargetMarlon Vera

By target zone

46% acc · 78%

Head

42% acc · 45%

71% acc · 12%

Body

73% acc · 32%

91% acc · 10%

Leg

85% acc · 24%

By position

47% acc · 78%

Distance

54% acc · 74%

68% acc · 21%

Clinch

69% acc · 22%

100% acc · 1%

Ground

50% acc · 4%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Song Yadong rounds

even

Marlon Vera rounds

Round 1Marlon Vera edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:39

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:38Control

Round 2Song Yadong edged it

Sig. strikes44

Takedowns0

Control0:03

37Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:26Control

Round 3Marlon Vera edged it

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns0

Control0:18

34Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

2:11Control

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

101 / 201

Sig Strikes

92 / 164

48.7%

Sig Str %

57.7%

119 / 221

Total Strikes

115 / 187

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 3

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

1:00

Ctrl Time

3:15

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Marlon Vera	21 / 32	29 / 40	0 / 0
1	Song Yadong	17 / 40	22 / 45	0 / 0
2	Marlon Vera	37 / 74	40 / 77	0 / 1
2	Song Yadong	44 / 89	47 / 92	0 / 1
3	Marlon Vera	34 / 58	46 / 70	2 / 2
3	Song Yadong	40 / 72	50 / 84	0 / 0

Song Yadong

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights17

Marlon Vera

StanceSwitch

Height68.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights26