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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Song Yadong won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1518

Elo1504

Song YadongvsJulio ArceUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · Saturday, November 13, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Song Yadong won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 1:35

Style matchupSong Yadong: Pressure fightervsJulio Arce: Well-rounded

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Song Yadong wins(79.6%)

Actual result: Song Yadong wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Song Yadong at -145 American odds

+$69 profit

$169 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Julio Arce has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Julio Arce has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Julio Arce (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Song Yadong

Red Corner

Julio Arce

Blue Corner

-145

(59%)

Vegas Odds

+125

(44%)

1518

Elo

1504

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'7"

170.18 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Song Yadong

oldest →

vs Chris Gutierrez · Dec 23

vs Petr Yan · Mar 24

vs Henry Cejudo · Feb 25

vs Sean O'Malley · Jan 26

SUBvs Deiveson Figueiredo · May 26

latest

Julio Arce

oldest →

vs Hakeem Dawodu · Nov 19

KOvs Andre Ewell · Jul 21

vs Daniel Santos · Apr 22

vs Montel Jackson · Nov 22

KOvs Herbert Burns · Mar 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Song YadongMetricJulio Arce

4.42

Strikes / min

4.36

3.94

Strikes absorbed / min

3.05

55%

Strike defense

68%

0.78

TDs / 15 min

0.46

73%

Takedown defense

96%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.48evenly matched on net striking+1.31

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Song YadongJulio Arce

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Song Yadong(10 fights)Julio Arce(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +13.9|Blue -13.9

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red -14.0|Blue +14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Song YadongTargetJulio Arce

By target zone

25% acc · 50%

Head

10% acc · 54%

67% acc · 27%

Body

57% acc · 31%

88% acc · 23%

Leg

100% acc · 15%

By position

35% acc · 90%

Distance

17% acc · 100%

Clinch

100% acc · 10%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Song Yadong rounds

even

Julio Arce rounds

Round 1Song Yadong edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Song Yadong edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 80

Sig Strikes

13 / 78

39%

Sig Str %

17.5%

30 / 80

Total Strikes

13 / 78

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Julio Arce	5 / 46	5 / 46	0 / 0
1	Song Yadong	17 / 52	17 / 52	0 / 0
2	Julio Arce	8 / 32	8 / 32	0 / 0
2	Song Yadong	13 / 28	13 / 28	0 / 0

Song Yadong

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights17

Julio Arce

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights10