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Bantamweight

3 Rounds

Song Yadong won · S-DEC R3

Elo1518

Elo1406

Song YadongvsCasey KenneyUFC Prediction Result

UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane · Saturday, August 7, 2021Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Song Yadong won

S-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupSong Yadong: Pressure fightervsCasey Kenney: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Song Yadong wins(69.6%)

Actual result: Song Yadong wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Song Yadong at +105 American odds

+$105 profit

$205 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Casey Kenney (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Song Yadong

Red Corner

Casey Kenney

Blue Corner

+105

(49%)

Vegas Odds

-125

(56%)

1518

Elo

1406

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'8"

Height

5'7"

170.18 cm

Reach

172.72 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Song Yadong

oldest →

vs Chris Gutierrez · Dec 23

vs Petr Yan · Mar 24

vs Henry Cejudo · Feb 25

vs Sean O'Malley · Jan 26

SUBvs Deiveson Figueiredo · May 26

latest

Casey Kenney

oldest →

vs Merab Dvalishvili · Feb 20

SUBvs Louis Smolka · May 20

vs Heili Alateng · Oct 20

vs Nathaniel Wood · Oct 20

vs Dominick Cruz · Mar 21

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Song YadongMetricCasey Kenney

4.42

Strikes / min

4.85

3.94

Strikes absorbed / min

4.67

55%

Strike defense

58%

0.78

TDs / 15 min

1.09

73%

Takedown defense

61%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.48evenly matched on net striking+0.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Song YadongCasey Kenney

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Song Yadong(10 fights)Casey Kenney(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +111.7|Blue -111.7

Recent Form

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Layoff

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Song YadongTargetCasey Kenney

By target zone

34% acc · 57%

Head

32% acc · 58%

77% acc · 29%

Body

65% acc · 26%

100% acc · 14%

Leg

68% acc · 17%

By position

110

44% acc · 95%

Distance

41% acc · 99%

75% acc · 5%

Clinch

50% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Song Yadong rounds

even

Casey Kenney rounds

Round 1Song Yadong edged it

Sig. strikes31

Takedowns0

Control0:14

19Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 2Song Yadong edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:06

28Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:12Control

Round 3Song Yadong edged it

Sig. strikes51

Takedowns0

Control0:00

31Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

0:05Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

116 / 257

Sig Strikes

78 / 190

44.3%

Sig Str %

40.3%

121 / 263

Total Strikes

85 / 199

0 / 3

TDs

1 / 5

TD %

12.5%

Sub Att

Rev

0:20

Ctrl Time

0:26

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Casey Kenney	19 / 57	19 / 57	0 / 0
1	Song Yadong	31 / 68	31 / 68	0 / 0
2	Casey Kenney	28 / 60	32 / 65	0 / 1
2	Song Yadong	34 / 78	38 / 82	0 / 0
3	Casey Kenney	31 / 73	34 / 77	1 / 4
3	Song Yadong	51 / 111	52 / 113	0 / 3

Song Yadong

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights17

Casey Kenney

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach68.0"

Fights8