Lightweight

3 Rounds

Mairon Santos won · U-DEC R3

Elo1486

Elo1558

Sodiq YusuffvsMairon SantosUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · Saturday, May 17, 2025Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Mairon Santos won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupSodiq Yusuff: Pressure fightervsMairon Santos: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Mairon Santos wins(74.3%)

Actual result: Mairon Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Mairon Santos at -148 American odds

+$68 profit

$168 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Mairon Santos enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Mairon Santos has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Sodiq Yusuff

Red Corner

Mairon Santos

Blue Corner

+126

(44%)

Vegas Odds

-148

(60%)

1486

Elo

1558

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'7"

180.34 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sodiq YusuffL2 streak

oldest →

vs Arnold Allen · Apr 21

vs Alex Caceres · Mar 22

SUBvs Don Shainis · Oct 22

vs Edson Barboza · Oct 23

KOvs Diego Lopes · Apr 24

latest

Mairon SantosW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Kaan Ofli · Aug 24

vs Francis Marshall · Mar 25

KOvs Muhammad Naimov · Dec 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sodiq YusuffMetricMairon Santos

5.27

Strikes / min

3.33

4.29

Strikes absorbed / min

2.24

53%

Strike defense

65%

0.36

TDs / 15 min

0.00

62%

Takedown defense

69%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.98evenly matched on net striking+1.09

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sodiq YusuffMairon Santos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sodiq Yusuff(10 fights)Mairon Santos(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -71.8|Blue +71.8

Recent Form

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +329.0|Blue -329.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sodiq YusuffTargetMairon Santos

By target zone

20% acc · 25%

Head

39% acc · 55%

47% acc · 25%

Body

56% acc · 25%

78% acc · 50%

Leg

89% acc · 20%

By position

42% acc · 97%

Distance

45% acc · 88%

50% acc · 3%

Clinch

83% acc · 13%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sodiq Yusuff rounds

even

Mairon Santos rounds

Round 1Sodiq Yusuff edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:42

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Mairon Santos edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:01

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:35Control

Round 3Mairon Santos edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control1:19

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:19Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

36 / 86

Sig Strikes

40 / 83

41.3%

Sig Str %

47.7%

60 / 115

Total Strikes

71 / 114

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

33.3%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

2:02

Ctrl Time

1:57

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Mairon Santos	9 / 27	9 / 27	0 / 0
1	Sodiq Yusuff	19 / 30	19 / 30	0 / 1
2	Mairon Santos	16 / 27	26 / 37	0 / 0
2	Sodiq Yusuff	10 / 26	29 / 48	0 / 1
3	Mairon Santos	15 / 29	36 / 50	0 / 0
3	Sodiq Yusuff	7 / 30	12 / 37	1 / 1

Sodiq Yusuff

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights10

Mairon Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights4