Featherweight

3 Rounds

Sodiq Yusuff won · SUB R1

Elo1486

Elo1449

Sodiq YusuffvsDon ShainisUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · Saturday, October 1, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Sodiq Yusuff won

SUB · Round 1 · 0:30

Style matchupSodiq Yusuff: Pressure fightervsDon Shainis: Submission grappler

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Sodiq Yusuff wins(76.6%)

Actual result: Sodiq Yusuff wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Sodiq Yusuff at -1050 American odds

+$10 profit

$110 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Sodiq Yusuff enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Sodiq Yusuff has 22pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Sodiq Yusuff has 42pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Sodiq Yusuff has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Sodiq Yusuff

Red Corner

Don Shainis

Blue Corner

-1050

(91%)

Vegas Odds

+700

(13%)

1486

Elo

1449

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'9"

Height

5'6"

180.34 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sodiq YusuffL3 streak

oldest →

vs Arnold Allen · Apr 21

vs Alex Caceres · Mar 22

vs Edson Barboza · Oct 23

KOvs Diego Lopes · Apr 24

vs Mairon Santos · May 25

latest

Don Shainis

oldest →

vs Jack Jenkins · Feb 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sodiq YusuffMetricDon Shainis

5.27

Strikes / min

3.42

4.29

Strikes absorbed / min

5.87

53%

Strike defense

31%

0.36

TDs / 15 min

0.97

62%

Takedown defense

20%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.90

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.98Δ 3.43 — meaningful gap-2.45

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sodiq YusuffDon Shainis

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sodiq Yusuff(10 fights)Don Shainis(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +37.0|Blue -37.0

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -49.4|Blue +49.4

Grappler Score

Red -49.9|Blue +49.9

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sodiq YusuffTargetDon Shainis

By target zone

100% acc · 11%

Head

100% acc · 89%

Body

100% acc · 100%

Leg

By position

100% acc · 22%

Distance

100% acc · 33%

100% acc · 78%

Clinch

100% acc · 67%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sodiq Yusuff rounds

even

Don Shainis rounds

Round 1Sodiq Yusuff edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:02

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:11Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

9 / 9

Sig Strikes

3 / 3

100%

Sig Str %

100%

9 / 9

Total Strikes

9 / 9

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:11

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Don Shainis	3 / 3	9 / 9	0 / 1	0
1	Sodiq Yusuff	9 / 9	9 / 9	0 / 0	1

Sodiq Yusuff

StanceOrthodox

Height69.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights10

Don Shainis

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights2