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Featherweight
3 Rounds
Diego Lopes won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1486
Elo1549
Diego Lopes

Sodiq YusuffvsDiego LopesUFC Prediction Result

UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Saturday, April 13, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Diego Lopes won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 1:29

Style matchupSodiq Yusuff: Pressure fightervsDiego Lopes: Submission grappler

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Diego Lopes wins(60.6%)

Actual result: Diego Lopes wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Diego Lopes at -142 American odds

+$70 profit

$170 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Sodiq Yusuff
Red Corner
VS
Diego Lopes
Blue Corner
+120
(45%)
Vegas Odds
-142
(59%)
1486
Elo
1549
33
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'11"
180.34 cm
Reach
182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sodiq YusuffL2 streak
oldest →
L
vs Arnold Allen · Apr 21
W
vs Alex Caceres · Mar 22
W
SUBvs Don Shainis · Oct 22
L
vs Edson Barboza · Oct 23
L
vs Mairon Santos · May 25
latest
Diego Lopes
oldest →
W
vs Brian Ortega · Sep 24
L
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Apr 25
W
KOvs Jean Silva · Sep 25
L
vs Alexander Volkanovski · Jan 26
W
KOvs Steve Garcia · Jun 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sodiq YusuffMetricDiego Lopes
5.27
Strikes / min
3.83
4.29
Strikes absorbed / min
4.56
53%
Strike defense
45%
0.36
TDs / 15 min
0.88
62%
Takedown defense
68%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
1.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.98Δ 1.71 — meaningful gap-0.73

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1564 vs 1525Strikes5.7 vs 3.2Takedowns0.3 vs 0.3Sub Atts0.40 vs 3.70Form-0.3 vs 0.5
Sodiq YusuffDiego Lopes

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701493151515381560← oldermost recent →
Sodiq Yusuff(10 fights)Diego Lopes(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -63.5|Blue +63.5
Recent Form
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Striker Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Grappler Score
Red -0.7|Blue +0.7
Layoff
Red +28.0|Blue -28.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sodiq YusuffTargetDiego Lopes

By target zone

1
100% acc · 50%
Head
21
78% acc · 81%
0
Body
2
100% acc · 8%
1
25% acc · 50%
Leg
3
100% acc · 12%

By position

2
40% acc · 100%
Distance
3
75% acc · 12%
0
Clinch
5
71% acc · 19%
0
Ground
18
86% acc · 69%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Sodiq Yusuff rounds
0
even
1
Diego Lopes rounds
Round 1Diego Lopes edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
26Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:34Control
2Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
2
2 / 5
Sig Strikes
26 / 32
40%
Sig Str %
81%
2 / 5
Total Strikes
29 / 35
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:34

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Diego Lopes26 / 3229 / 350 / 00
1Sodiq Yusuff2 / 52 / 50 / 00

Sodiq Yusuff

StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights10

Diego Lopes

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights9