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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Soa Palelei won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1490
Soa Palelei
Elo1354

Soa PaleleivsRuan PottsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva · Saturday, May 10, 2014Cincinnati, Ohio, USA

Official fight result

Soa Palelei won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:20

Model Prediction: Soa Palelei wins(68.2%)

Actual result: Soa Palelei wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Soa Palelei at -310 American odds

+$32 profit

$132 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Soa Palelei is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Ruan Potts has lost 100% of fights by KO.
  • Soa Palelei has 26pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Soa Palelei has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Soa Palelei has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Soa Palelei
Red Corner
VS
Ruan Potts
Blue Corner
-310
(76%)
Vegas Odds
+280
(26%)
1490
Elo
1354
49
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'4"
Height
6'2"
205.74 cm
Reach
190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Soa Palelei
oldest →
W
KOvs Nikita Krylov · Aug 13
W
KOvs Pat Barry · Dec 13
L
vs Jared Rosholt · Jun 14
W
KOvs Walt Harris · Nov 14
L
KOvs Antonio Silva · Aug 15
latest
Ruan PottsL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Anthony Hamilton · Aug 14
L
KOvs Derrick Lewis · Feb 15
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Soa PaleleiMetricRuan Potts
2.47
Strikes / min
0.85
2.68
Strikes absorbed / min
5.92
48%
Strike defense
22%
2.20
TDs / 15 min
0.75
66%
Takedown defense
33%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
2.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.21Δ 4.86 — meaningful gap-5.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1526 vs 1500Strikes20.7 vs —Takedowns2.0 vs —Sub Atts0.00 vs —Form1.0 vs 0.0
Soa PaleleiRuan Potts

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Soa Palelei(6 fights)Ruan Potts(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +136.1|Blue -136.1
Recent Form
Red +1.0|Blue -1.0
Striker Score
Red -48.4|Blue +48.4
Grappler Score
Red -49.5|Blue +49.5
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Soa PaleleiTargetRuan Potts

By target zone

5
71% acc · 100%
Head
0
0% acc
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
0% acc

By position

0
0% acc
Distance
0
0% acc
0
Clinch
0
5
83% acc · 100%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Soa Palelei rounds
0
even
0
Ruan Potts rounds
Round 1Soa Palelei edged it
Sig. strikes5
Takedowns1
Control1:41
0Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:06Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
5 / 7
Sig Strikes
0 / 3
71%
Sig Str %
0%
19 / 21
Total Strikes
5 / 8
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
2
0
Rev
1
1:41
Ctrl Time
0:06

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Ruan Potts0 / 35 / 80 / 02
1Soa Palelei5 / 719 / 211 / 10

Soa Palelei

StanceOrthodox
Height76.0"
Reach81.0"
Fights6

Ruan Potts

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights3