← All fights/Event page

Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Soa Palelei won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1490

Elo1485

Soa PaleleivsNikita KrylovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2 · Saturday, August 31, 2013Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA

Official fight result

Soa Palelei won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 1:34

Style matchupSoa Palelei: WrestlervsNikita Krylov: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Soa Palelei wins(68.0%)

Actual result: Soa Palelei wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Soa Palelei at +120 American odds

+$120 profit

$220 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Soa Palelei has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Soa Palelei

Red Corner

Nikita Krylov

Blue Corner

+120

(45%)

Vegas Odds

-130

(57%)

1490

Elo

1485

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'3"

205.74 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Soa Palelei

oldest →

KOvs Pat Barry · Dec 13

KOvs Ruan Potts · May 14

vs Jared Rosholt · Jun 14

KOvs Walt Harris · Nov 14

KOvs Antonio Silva · Aug 15

latest

Nikita Krylov

oldest →

SUBvs Ryan Spann · Mar 23

KOvs Dominick Reyes · Apr 25

KOvs Bogdan Guskov · Jul 25

KOvs Modestas Bukauskas · Jan 26

KOvs Robert Whittaker · Jul 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Soa PaleleiMetricNikita Krylov

2.47

Strikes / min

4.36

2.68

Strikes absorbed / min

2.59

48%

Strike defense

47%

2.20

TDs / 15 min

2.05

66%

Takedown defense

53%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.21Δ 1.98 — meaningful gap+1.77

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Soa PaleleiNikita Krylov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Soa Palelei(6 fights)Nikita Krylov(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +5.0|Blue -5.0

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Soa PaleleiTargetNikita Krylov

By target zone

67% acc · 90%

Head

63% acc · 82%

100% acc · 7%

Body

86% acc · 13%

100% acc · 3%

Leg

100% acc · 4%

By position

67% acc · 14%

Distance

35% acc · 13%

58% acc · 24%

Clinch

76% acc · 87%

75% acc · 62%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Soa Palelei rounds

even

Nikita Krylov rounds

Round 1Soa Palelei edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns2

Control4:28

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:15Control

Round 2Nikita Krylov edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns2

Control2:26

36Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:23Control

Round 3Soa Palelei edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:42

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:41Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

29 / 42

Sig Strikes

45 / 68

69%

Sig Str %

55.3%

107 / 128

Total Strikes

98 / 123

4 / 4

TDs

0 / 1

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

7:36

Ctrl Time

2:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Nikita Krylov	8 / 12	31 / 37	0 / 0	2
1	Soa Palelei	15 / 21	28 / 34	2 / 2	0
2	Nikita Krylov	36 / 53	66 / 83	0 / 1	0
2	Soa Palelei	8 / 13	26 / 31	2 / 2	0
3	Nikita Krylov	1 / 3	1 / 3	0 / 0	0
3	Soa Palelei	6 / 8	53 / 63	0 / 0	0

Soa Palelei

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights6

Nikita Krylov

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights23