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Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Jared Rosholt won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1490

Soa PaleleivsJared RosholtUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Te Huna vs Marquardt · Saturday, June 28, 2014Auckland, New Zealand

Official fight result

Jared Rosholt won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Jared Rosholt wins(62.5%)

Actual result: Jared Rosholt wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jared Rosholt at -165 American odds

+$61 profit

$161 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Soa Palelei is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Jared Rosholt has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Jared Rosholt has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Soa Palelei has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Soa Palelei

Red Corner

Jared Rosholt

Blue Corner

+155

(39%)

Vegas Odds

-165

(62%)

1490

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'4"

Height

6'2"

205.74 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Soa Palelei

oldest →

KOvs Nikita Krylov · Aug 13

KOvs Pat Barry · Dec 13

KOvs Ruan Potts · May 14

KOvs Walt Harris · Nov 14

KOvs Antonio Silva · Aug 15

latest

Jared Rosholt

oldest →

KOvs Aleksei Oleinik · Nov 14

KOvs Josh Copeland · Mar 15

DECvs Tim Johnson · Aug 15

vs Stefan Struve · Nov 15

vs Roy Nelson · Feb 16

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Soa PaleleiMetricJared Rosholt

2.47

Strikes / min

2.08

2.68

Strikes absorbed / min

1.52

48%

Strike defense

59%

2.20

TDs / 15 min

1.83

66%

Takedown defense

66%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.21evenly matched on net striking+0.56

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Soa PaleleiJared Rosholt

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Soa Palelei(6 fights)Jared Rosholt(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Recent Form

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Layoff

Red -29.0|Blue +29.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Soa PaleleiTargetJared Rosholt

By target zone

40% acc · 73%

Head

57% acc · 37%

50% acc · 9%

Body

82% acc · 21%

67% acc · 18%

Leg

95% acc · 42%

By position

25% acc · 36%

Distance

27% acc · 9%

60% acc · 27%

Clinch

89% acc · 56%

100% acc · 36%

Ground

94% acc · 35%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Soa Palelei rounds

even

Jared Rosholt rounds

Round 1Jared Rosholt edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:42

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:21Control

Round 2Jared Rosholt edged it

Sig. strikes3

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:38Control

Round 3Jared Rosholt edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:00

10Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

4:35Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

11 / 25

Sig Strikes

43 / 58

44.3%

Sig Str %

80.7%

46 / 62

Total Strikes

148 / 177

0 / 5

TDs

1 / 4

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

0:42

Ctrl Time

11:34

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Jared Rosholt	11 / 14	35 / 43	0 / 3
1	Soa Palelei	7 / 9	32 / 34	0 / 3
2	Jared Rosholt	22 / 34	51 / 65	0 / 0
2	Soa Palelei	3 / 13	10 / 21	0 / 2
3	Jared Rosholt	10 / 10	62 / 69	1 / 1
3	Soa Palelei	1 / 3	4 / 7	0 / 0

Soa Palelei

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach81.0"

Fights6

Jared Rosholt

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights8