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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Siyar Bahadurzada won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1377

Elo1491

Siyar BahadurzadavsLuan ChagasUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee · Saturday, April 21, 2018Atlantic City, New Jersey, USA

Official fight result

Siyar Bahadurzada won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 2:40

Style matchupSiyar Bahadurzada: Well-roundedvsLuan Chagas: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Siyar Bahadurzada wins(59.2%)

Actual result: Siyar Bahadurzada wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Siyar Bahadurzada at +150 American odds

+$150 profit

$250 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Siyar Bahadurzada is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Luan Chagas has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Luan Chagas has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Luan Chagas has 23pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Siyar Bahadurzada

Red Corner

Luan Chagas

Blue Corner

+150

(40%)

Vegas Odds

-170

(63%)

1377

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

6'0"

185.42 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Siyar BahadurzadaL2 streak

oldest →

vs John Howard · Dec 13

SUBvs Brandon Thatch · Mar 16

KOvs Rob Wilkinson · Sep 17

vs Curtis Millender · Dec 18

vs Ismail Naurdiev · Sep 19

latest

Luan Chagas

oldest →

SUBvs Erick Silva · Sep 16

SUBvs Jimmy Wallhead · Jun 17

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Siyar BahadurzadaMetricLuan Chagas

2.91

Strikes / min

4.16

3.23

Strikes absorbed / min

3.19

49%

Strike defense

62%

1.32

TDs / 15 min

0.32

62%

Takedown defense

85%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.30

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.32Δ 1.29 — meaningful gap+0.97

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Siyar BahadurzadaLuan Chagas

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Siyar Bahadurzada(8 fights)Luan Chagas(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -114.5|Blue +114.5

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red -2.0|Blue +2.0

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -91.0|Blue +91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Siyar BahadurzadaTargetLuan Chagas

By target zone

39% acc · 61%

Head

27% acc · 64%

100% acc · 27%

Body

17% acc · 9%

100% acc · 12%

Leg

60% acc · 27%

By position

46% acc · 73%

Distance

26% acc · 82%

67% acc · 6%

Clinch

100% acc · 9%

78% acc · 21%

Ground

50% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Siyar Bahadurzada rounds

even

Luan Chagas rounds

Round 1Siyar Bahadurzada edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control1:39

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:34Control

Round 2Siyar Bahadurzada edged it

Sig. strikes21

Takedowns0

Control0:01

Knockdowns1

8Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

33 / 64

Sig Strikes

11 / 37

53.5%

Sig Str %

37.5%

61 / 94

Total Strikes

31 / 58

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 1

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

1:40

Ctrl Time

2:34

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Luan Chagas	3 / 6	22 / 26	0 / 0
1	Siyar Bahadurzada	12 / 20	40 / 50	1 / 1
2	Luan Chagas	8 / 31	9 / 32	0 / 1
2	Siyar Bahadurzada	21 / 44	21 / 44	0 / 0

Siyar Bahadurzada

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8

Luan Chagas

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights3