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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Ismail Naurdiev won · U-DEC R3

Elo1377

Elo1513

Siyar BahadurzadavsIsmail NaurdievUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier · Saturday, September 28, 2019Copenhagen, Denmark

Official fight result

Ismail Naurdiev won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupSiyar Bahadurzada: Well-roundedvsIsmail Naurdiev: Elusive striker

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Ismail Naurdiev wins(57.2%)

Actual result: Ismail Naurdiev wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ismail Naurdiev at -230 American odds

+$43 profit

$143 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Ismail Naurdiev has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Siyar Bahadurzada

Red Corner

Ismail Naurdiev

Blue Corner

+190

(34%)

Vegas Odds

-230

(70%)

1377

Elo

1513

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'10"

185.42 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Siyar Bahadurzada

oldest →

vs John Howard · Dec 13

SUBvs Brandon Thatch · Mar 16

KOvs Rob Wilkinson · Sep 17

KOvs Luan Chagas · Apr 18

vs Curtis Millender · Dec 18

latest

Ismail Naurdiev

oldest →

vs Chance Rencountre · Jul 19

vs Sean Brady · Feb 20

vs Bruno Silva · Oct 24

vs JunYong Park · Jun 25

KOvs Ryan Loder · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Siyar BahadurzadaMetricIsmail Naurdiev

2.91

Strikes / min

3.66

3.23

Strikes absorbed / min

1.75

49%

Strike defense

64%

1.32

TDs / 15 min

1.48

62%

Takedown defense

73%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.32Δ 2.23 — meaningful gap+1.91

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Siyar BahadurzadaIsmail Naurdiev

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Siyar Bahadurzada(8 fights)Ismail Naurdiev(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -136.2|Blue +136.2

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red +189.0|Blue -189.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Siyar BahadurzadaTargetIsmail Naurdiev

By target zone

11% acc · 83%

Head

42% acc · 43%

40% acc · 17%

Body

63% acc · 22%

0% acc

Leg

77% acc · 35%

By position

13% acc · 100%

Distance

56% acc · 91%

0% acc

Clinch

Ground

46% acc · 9%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Siyar Bahadurzada rounds

even

Ismail Naurdiev rounds

Round 1Ismail Naurdiev edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:00

33Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Ismail Naurdiev edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

2:40Control

Round 3Ismail Naurdiev edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns0

Control0:00

22Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

3:04Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

12 / 96

Sig Strikes

69 / 126

13%

Sig Str %

52.7%

14 / 98

Total Strikes

149 / 218

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 3

—

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

5:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ismail Naurdiev	33 / 56	33 / 56	0 / 0
1	Siyar Bahadurzada	6 / 41	6 / 41	0 / 0
2	Ismail Naurdiev	14 / 32	43 / 65	1 / 1
2	Siyar Bahadurzada	2 / 35	3 / 36	0 / 0
3	Ismail Naurdiev	22 / 38	73 / 97	2 / 2
3	Siyar Bahadurzada	4 / 20	5 / 21	0 / 0

Siyar Bahadurzada

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights8

Ismail Naurdiev

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights7