Welterweight

3 Rounds

David Mitchell won · U-DEC R3

Elo1352

Simeon ThoresenvsDavid MitchellUFC Prediction Result

UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson · Saturday, January 26, 2013Chicago, Illinois, USA

Official fight result

David Mitchell won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Simeon Thoresen wins(55.1%)

Actual result: David Mitchell wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Simeon Thoresen at -230 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

David Mitchell enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Simeon Thoresen has 21pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Simeon Thoresen has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Simeon Thoresen

Red Corner

David Mitchell

Blue Corner

-230

(70%)

Vegas Odds

+210

(32%)

1352

Elo

1352

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'0"

200.66 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Simeon Thoresen

oldest →

SUBvs Besam Yousef · Apr 12

KOvs Seth Baczynski · Sep 12

latest

David MitchellL4 streak

oldest →

vs TJ Waldburger · Sep 10

vs Paulo Thiago · Aug 11

KOvs Mike Pierce · Jul 13

vs Yan Cabral · Oct 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Simeon ThoresenMetricDavid Mitchell

3.85

Strikes / min

1.74

3.85

Strikes absorbed / min

2.06

64%

Strike defense

55%

1.12

TDs / 15 min

0.66

50%

Takedown defense

29%

1.70

Sub atts / 15 min

2.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

0.00evenly matched on net striking-0.32

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Simeon ThoresenDavid Mitchell

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Simeon Thoresen(3 fights)David Mitchell(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -0.6|Blue +0.6

Recent Form

Red +0.8|Blue -0.8

Striker Score

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red -392.0|Blue +392.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Simeon ThoresenTargetDavid Mitchell

By target zone

37% acc · 73%

Head

36% acc · 87%

67% acc · 12%

Body

70% acc · 12%

88% acc · 14%

Leg

25% acc · 2%

By position

42% acc · 80%

Distance

34% acc · 68%

50% acc · 20%

Clinch

43% acc · 10%

0% acc

Ground

52% acc · 22%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Simeon Thoresen rounds

even

David Mitchell rounds

Round 1Simeon Thoresen edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:04

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Round 2David Mitchell edged it

Sig. strikes0

Takedowns1

Control1:38

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:35Control

Round 3David Mitchell edged it

Sig. strikes15

Takedowns0

Control1:55

16Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:22Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

49 / 115

Sig Strikes

60 / 159

31%

Sig Str %

40%

52 / 119

Total Strikes

121 / 234

1 / 1

TDs

1 / 2

100%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

3:37

Ctrl Time

4:01

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	David Mitchell	30 / 91	46 / 112	0 / 0	0
1	Simeon Thoresen	34 / 79	35 / 80	0 / 0	0
2	David Mitchell	14 / 35	36 / 64	0 / 0	0
2	Simeon Thoresen	0 / 6	2 / 9	1 / 1	0
3	David Mitchell	16 / 33	39 / 58	1 / 2	2
3	Simeon Thoresen	15 / 30	15 / 30	0 / 0	0

Simeon Thoresen

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights3

David Mitchell

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights5