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Women's Flyweight

3 Rounds

Melissa Gatto won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1494

Elo1492

Sijara EubanksvsMelissa GattoUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · Saturday, December 18, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Melissa Gatto won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 0:45

Style matchupSijara Eubanks: Well-roundedvsMelissa Gatto: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Melissa Gatto wins(60.1%)

Actual result: Melissa Gatto wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Melissa Gatto at +145 American odds

+$145 profit

$245 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Sijara Eubanks

Red Corner

Melissa Gatto

Blue Corner

-165

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+145

(41%)

1494

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'4"

Height

5'5"

170.18 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sijara Eubanks

oldest →

vs Sarah Moras · May 20

vs Julia Avila · Sep 20

vs Ketlen Vieira · Sep 20

vs Pannie Kianzad · Dec 20

KOvs Elise Reed · Jul 21

latest

Melissa Gatto

oldest →

KOvs Victoria Leonardo · Aug 21

vs Tracy Cortez · May 22

vs Ariane da Silva · Jul 23

KOvs Tamires Vidal · May 24

DECvs Dione Barbosa · Apr 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sijara EubanksMetricMelissa Gatto

4.30

Strikes / min

3.47

3.43

Strikes absorbed / min

2.67

57%

Strike defense

54%

1.90

TDs / 15 min

1.77

66%

Takedown defense

58%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.87evenly matched on net striking+0.80

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Sijara EubanksMelissa Gatto

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Sijara Eubanks(10 fights)Melissa Gatto(6 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +1.8|Blue -1.8

Recent Form

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Striker Score

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +14.0|Blue -14.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sijara EubanksTargetMelissa Gatto

By target zone

27% acc · 71%

Head

41% acc · 65%

50% acc · 29%

Body

100% acc · 12%

Leg

80% acc · 24%

By position

15% acc · 36%

Distance

45% acc · 76%

100% acc · 14%

Clinch

100% acc · 12%

70% acc · 50%

Ground

67% acc · 12%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Sijara Eubanks rounds

even

Melissa Gatto rounds

Round 1Sijara Eubanks edged it

Sig. strikes8

Takedowns0

Control4:30

2Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Round 2Melissa Gatto edged it

Sig. strikes4

Takedowns1

Control1:35

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

2:53Control

Round 3Melissa Gatto edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

14 / 45

Sig Strikes

17 / 34

30.7%

Sig Str %

48.7%

32 / 68

Total Strikes

64 / 91

1 / 4

TDs

0 / 1

16.5%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

6:05

Ctrl Time

3:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Melissa Gatto	2 / 5	20 / 23	0 / 0
1	Sijara Eubanks	8 / 18	23 / 37	0 / 1
2	Melissa Gatto	9 / 13	37 / 51	0 / 1
2	Sijara Eubanks	4 / 11	7 / 15	1 / 3
3	Melissa Gatto	6 / 16	7 / 17	0 / 0
3	Sijara Eubanks	2 / 16	2 / 16	0 / 0

Sijara Eubanks

StanceOrthodox

Height64.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights10

Melissa Gatto

StanceOrthodox

Height65.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights6