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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Shinsho Anzai won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1491

Elo1490

Shinsho AnzaivsRoger ZapataUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · Saturday, September 26, 2015Saitama, Japan

Official fight result

Shinsho Anzai won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 0:47

Style matchupShinsho Anzai: Well-roundedvsRoger Zapata: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Shinsho Anzai wins(59.7%)

Actual result: Shinsho Anzai wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Shinsho Anzai at -115 American odds

+$87 profit

$187 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Stance matchup historically favors Roger Zapata (53.5%).
Roger Zapata has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Shinsho Anzai

Red Corner

Roger Zapata

Blue Corner

-115

(53%)

Vegas Odds

-105

(51%)

1491

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'7"

Height

5'11"

177.8 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Shinsho Anzai

oldest →

KOvs Alberto Mina · Aug 14

vs Luke Jumeau · Sep 17

SUBvs Jake Matthews · Jun 18

latest

Roger ZapataNo prior UFC fights on record.

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Shinsho AnzaiMetricRoger Zapata

3.23

Strikes / min

2.60

3.75

Strikes absorbed / min

2.13

45%

Strike defense

36%

1.83

TDs / 15 min

0.00

75%

Takedown defense

81%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

1.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.52evenly matched on net striking+0.47

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Shinsho AnzaiRoger Zapata

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Shinsho Anzai(4 fights)Roger Zapata(1 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Recent Form

Red -1.0|Blue +1.0

Striker Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Shinsho AnzaiTargetRoger Zapata

By target zone

45% acc · 39%

Head

47% acc · 79%

100% acc · 30%

Body

86% acc · 21%

78% acc · 30%

Leg

By position

52% acc · 48%

Distance

35% acc · 43%

79% acc · 48%

Clinch

86% acc · 43%

100% acc · 4%

Ground

67% acc · 14%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Shinsho Anzai rounds

even

Roger Zapata rounds

Round 1Shinsho Anzai edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control3:23

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:03Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns1

Control3:31

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:21Control

Round 3Shinsho Anzai edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:00

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

23 / 36

Sig Strikes

28 / 54

62.3%

Sig Str %

49%

49 / 68

Total Strikes

53 / 82

2 / 11

TDs

0 / 1

13.3%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

6:54

Ctrl Time

0:24

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Roger Zapata	9 / 18	27 / 38	0 / 0	0
1	Shinsho Anzai	12 / 18	28 / 37	1 / 5	0
2	Roger Zapata	16 / 29	23 / 37	0 / 1	1
2	Shinsho Anzai	6 / 9	16 / 22	1 / 5	0
3	Roger Zapata	3 / 7	3 / 7	0 / 0	0
3	Shinsho Anzai	5 / 9	5 / 9	0 / 1	0

Shinsho Anzai

StanceOrthodox

Height67.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights4

Roger Zapata

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach—

Fights1