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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Jake Matthews won · SUB R1
Elo1491
Shinsho Anzai
Elo1522
Jake Matthews

Shinsho AnzaivsJake MatthewsUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Edwards · Saturday, June 23, 2018Kallang, Singapore

Official fight result

Jake Matthews won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:44

Style matchupShinsho Anzai: Well-roundedvsJake Matthews: Well-rounded

Well-rounded vs well-rounded. Usually decided by who imposes their gameplan first.

Model Prediction: Shinsho Anzai wins(67.7%)

Actual result: Jake Matthews wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Shinsho Anzai at +450 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jake Matthews has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Shinsho Anzai
Red Corner
VS
Jake Matthews
Blue Corner
+450
(18%)
Vegas Odds
-600
(86%)
1491
Elo
1522
40
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'11"
177.8 cm
Reach
185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Shinsho AnzaiW2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Alberto Mina · Aug 14
W
KOvs Roger Zapata · Sep 15
W
vs Luke Jumeau · Sep 17
latest
Jake Matthews
oldest →
W
vs Phil Rowe · Jun 24
W
vs Francisco Prado · Feb 25
W
SUBvs Chidi Njokuani · Jul 25
L
SUBvs Neil Magny · Sep 25
W
DECvs Carlston Harris · May 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Shinsho AnzaiMetricJake Matthews
3.23
Strikes / min
3.34
3.75
Strikes absorbed / min
2.62
45%
Strike defense
60%
1.83
TDs / 15 min
1.44
75%
Takedown defense
64%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.52Δ 1.24 — meaningful gap+0.72

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1520 vs 1553Strikes35.0 vs 33.1Takedowns1.3 vs 1.8Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.56Form0.9 vs 0.6
Shinsho AnzaiJake Matthews

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901503151515281540← oldermost recent →
Shinsho Anzai(4 fights)Jake Matthews(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -31.2|Blue +31.2
Recent Form
Red +0.3|Blue -0.3
Striker Score
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red +141.0|Blue -141.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Shinsho AnzaiTargetJake Matthews

By target zone

0
0% acc
Head
9
56% acc · 75%
1
100% acc · 100%
Body
3
100% acc · 25%
0
Leg
0

By position

0
0% acc
Distance
5
63% acc · 42%
1
100% acc · 100%
Clinch
5
63% acc · 42%
0
Ground
2
67% acc · 17%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Shinsho Anzai rounds
0
even
1
Jake Matthews rounds
Round 1Jake Matthews edged it
Sig. strikes1
Takedowns0
Control0:56
12Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
1:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
1 / 5
Sig Strikes
12 / 19
20%
Sig Str %
63%
6 / 13
Total Strikes
18 / 25
0 / 1
TDs
1 / 1
0%
TD %
100%
0
Sub Att
1
0
Rev
0
0:56
Ctrl Time
1:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jake Matthews12 / 1918 / 251 / 11
1Shinsho Anzai1 / 56 / 130 / 10

Shinsho Anzai

StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights4

Jake Matthews

StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights25