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Women's Strawweight

3 Rounds

Shi Ming won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1509

Elo1491

Shi MingvsFeng XiaocanUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo · Saturday, November 23, 2024Macau, China

Official fight result

Shi Ming won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 0:46

Style matchupShi Ming: Well-roundedvsFeng Xiaocan: Elusive striker

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Feng Xiaocan wins(72.1%)

Actual result: Shi Ming wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Feng Xiaocan at -490 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Feng Xiaocan has 15pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Feng Xiaocan (53.5%).
Feng Xiaocan has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Shi Ming

Red Corner

Feng Xiaocan

Blue Corner

+380

(21%)

Vegas Odds

-490

(83%)

1509

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'2"

Height

5'7"

152.4 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Shi MingMetricFeng Xiaocan

3.12

Strikes / min

4.18

2.92

Strikes absorbed / min

1.49

53%

Strike defense

68%

0.81

TDs / 15 min

0.70

57%

Takedown defense

63%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.20Δ 2.49 — meaningful gap+2.69

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Shi MingFeng Xiaocan

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +18.8|Blue -18.8

Recent Form

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Shi MingTargetFeng Xiaocan

By target zone

17% acc · 43%

Head

38% acc · 60%

46% acc · 37%

Body

29% acc · 4%

75% acc · 20%

Leg

94% acc · 35%

By position

28% acc · 93%

Distance

47% acc · 98%

0% acc

Clinch

0% acc

67% acc · 7%

Ground

100% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Shi Ming rounds

even

Feng Xiaocan rounds

Round 1Feng Xiaocan edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns1

Control0:26

18Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:03Control

Round 2Feng Xiaocan edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns0

Control0:27

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 3Shi Ming edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

30 / 108

Sig Strikes

48 / 102

35.7%

Sig Str %

47.7%

33 / 112

Total Strikes

58 / 114

1 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

50%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:55

Ctrl Time

1:05

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Feng Xiaocan	18 / 37	25 / 45	0 / 0
1	Shi Ming	12 / 38	12 / 39	1 / 2
2	Feng Xiaocan	27 / 59	30 / 63	0 / 0
2	Shi Ming	13 / 61	16 / 64	0 / 0
3	Feng Xiaocan	3 / 6	3 / 6	0 / 0
3	Shi Ming	5 / 9	5 / 9	0 / 0

Shi Ming

StanceOrthodox

Height62.0"

Reach60.0"

Fights1

Feng Xiaocan

StanceSouthpaw

Height67.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights1