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Lightweight

3 Rounds

Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady won · U-DEC R3

Elo1465

Elo1513

Shem RockvsAbdul-Kareem Al-SelwadyUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · Saturday, March 21, 2026London, England, United Kingdom

Official fight result

Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady wins(63.2%)

Actual result: Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady at -118 American odds

+$85 profit

$185 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Shem Rock has 34pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Shem Rock (53.5%).
Shem Rock has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Shem Rock

Red Corner

Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady

Blue Corner

-104

(51%)

Vegas Odds

-118

(54%)

1465

Elo

1513

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'8"

185.42 cm

Reach

175.26 cm

Recent Form

Last 1 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Shem Rock

oldest →

vs Nurullo Aliev · Nov 25

latest

Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady

oldest →

KOvs Loik Radzhabov · Mar 24

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Shem RockMetricAbdul-Kareem Al-Selwady

3.03

Strikes / min

4.61

4.40

Strikes absorbed / min

3.43

49%

Strike defense

60%

1.00

TDs / 15 min

1.47

88%

Takedown defense

54%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.37Δ 2.55 — meaningful gap+1.18

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Shem RockAbdul-Kareem Al-Selwady

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Shem Rock(2 fights)Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -47.7|Blue +47.7

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.0|Blue +0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.2|Blue +0.2

Layoff

Red -630.0|Blue +630.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Shem RockTargetAbdul-Kareem Al-Selwady

By target zone

26% acc · 55%

Head

47% acc · 59%

73% acc · 34%

Body

93% acc · 16%

100% acc · 11%

Leg

67% acc · 25%

By position

35% acc · 91%

Distance

55% acc · 88%

100% acc · 6%

Clinch

73% acc · 10%

50% acc · 2%

Ground

40% acc · 2%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Shem Rock rounds

even

Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady rounds

Round 1Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:30

27Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Round 2Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control0:24

25Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:10Control

Round 3Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady edged it

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns1

Control0:01

29Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:07Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

47 / 128

Sig Strikes

81 / 146

35.7%

Sig Str %

55.3%

52 / 134

Total Strikes

105 / 173

1 / 6

TDs

0 / 4

16.7%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:55

Ctrl Time

0:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady	27 / 52	28 / 53	0 / 1
1	Shem Rock	17 / 46	22 / 51	0 / 1
2	Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady	25 / 50	48 / 76	0 / 0
2	Shem Rock	11 / 36	11 / 36	0 / 3
3	Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady	29 / 44	29 / 44	0 / 3
3	Shem Rock	19 / 46	19 / 47	1 / 2

Shem Rock

StanceSouthpaw

Height71.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights2

Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach69.0"

Fights2