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Welterweight
3 Rounds
Sheldon Westcott won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1490
Elo1356

Sheldon WestcottvsEdgar GarciaUFC Prediction Result

UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit · Saturday, January 2, 2016Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Sheldon Westcott won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 3:12

Style matchupSheldon Westcott: WrestlervsEdgar Garcia: Wrestler

Wrestler-vs-wrestler scrambles. Whoever lands the first takedown often controls the round.

Model Prediction: Edgar Garcia wins(54.6%)

Actual result: Sheldon Westcott wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Edgar Garcia at +145 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Sheldon Westcott is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Edgar Garcia has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Edgar Garcia has 23pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Edgar Garcia has 36pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Sheldon Westcott (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Sheldon Westcott
Red Corner
VS
Edgar Garcia
Blue Corner
-165
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+145
(41%)
1490
Elo
1356
41
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
5'10"
180.34 cm
Reach
180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 2 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Sheldon WestcottL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Elias Theodorou · Apr 14
L
vs Pawel Pawlak · Apr 15
latest
Edgar Garcia
oldest →
L
SUBvs Hector Urbina · Nov 14
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Sheldon WestcottMetricEdgar Garcia
2.26
Strikes / min
3.16
3.73
Strikes absorbed / min
4.23
37%
Strike defense
60%
3.23
TDs / 15 min
2.21
14%
Takedown defense
50%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.47evenly matched on net striking-1.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1463 vs 1482Strikes15.0 vs 22.7Takedowns2.5 vs 1.3Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.33Form-1.0 vs -1.0
Sheldon WestcottEdgar Garcia

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14901495150015051510← oldermost recent →
Sheldon Westcott(3 fights)Edgar Garcia(2 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +134.5|Blue -134.5
Recent Form
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red -1.2|Blue +1.2
Grappler Score
Red -0.1|Blue +0.1
Layoff
Red -147.0|Blue +147.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Sheldon WestcottTargetEdgar Garcia

By target zone

33
43% acc · 100%
Head
1
33% acc · 100%
0
0% acc
Body
0
0
Leg
0

By position

0
0% acc
Distance
1
33% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
33
45% acc · 100%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Sheldon Westcott rounds
0
even
0
Edgar Garcia rounds
Round 1Sheldon Westcott edged it
Sig. strikes33
Takedowns1
Control2:27
1Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
33 / 79
Sig Strikes
1 / 3
41%
Sig Str %
33%
60 / 115
Total Strikes
1 / 3
1 / 1
TDs
0 / 0
100%
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
2:27
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Edgar Garcia1 / 31 / 30 / 00
1Sheldon Westcott33 / 7960 / 1151 / 10

Sheldon Westcott

StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights3

Edgar Garcia

StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights2