← All fights/Event page

Heavyweight

3 Rounds

Ruslan Magomedov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1490

Elo1490

Shawn JordanvsRuslan MagomedovUFC Prediction Result

UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · Saturday, October 3, 2015Houston, Texas, USA

Official fight result

Ruslan Magomedov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupShawn Jordan: Well-roundedvsRuslan Magomedov: Elusive striker

The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.

Model Prediction: Ruslan Magomedov wins(58.7%)

Actual result: Ruslan Magomedov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ruslan Magomedov at -190 American odds

+$53 profit

$153 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Shawn Jordan enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Ruslan Magomedov has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Shawn Jordan (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Shawn Jordan

Red Corner

Ruslan Magomedov

Blue Corner

+165

(38%)

Vegas Odds

-190

(66%)

1490

Elo

1490

Age

Southpaw

Stance

Orthodox

6'0"

Height

6'3"

190.5 cm

Reach

198.12 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Shawn JordanW3 streak

oldest →

KOvs Gabriel Gonzaga · Oct 13

KOvs Matt Mitrione · Mar 14

KOvs Jack May · Aug 14

KOvs Jared Cannonier · Jan 15

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Jun 15

latest

Ruslan MagomedovW2 streak

oldest →

vs Viktor Pesta · May 14

vs Josh Copeland · Nov 14

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Shawn JordanMetricRuslan Magomedov

2.87

Strikes / min

4.02

3.30

Strikes absorbed / min

1.47

47%

Strike defense

66%

1.97

TDs / 15 min

0.33

76%

Takedown defense

88%

0.10

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.43Δ 2.98 — meaningful gap+2.55

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Shawn JordanRuslan Magomedov

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Shawn Jordan(10 fights)Ruslan Magomedov(3 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Recent Form

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.5|Blue -0.5

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red -196.0|Blue +196.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Shawn JordanTargetRuslan Magomedov

By target zone

18% acc · 35%

Head

55% acc · 79%

58% acc · 35%

Body

100% acc · 13%

100% acc · 30%

Leg

100% acc · 8%

By position

23% acc · 50%

Distance

60% acc · 87%

77% acc · 50%

Clinch

75% acc · 13%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Shawn Jordan rounds

even

Ruslan Magomedov rounds

Round 1Ruslan Magomedov edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns1

Control2:24

15Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:06Control

Round 2Ruslan Magomedov edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control1:22

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:36Control

Round 3Ruslan Magomedov edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control1:10

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:34Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 56

Sig Strikes

71 / 116

32.7%

Sig Str %

61%

39 / 77

Total Strikes

85 / 130

1 / 9

TDs

0 / 0

11%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

4:56

Ctrl Time

1:16

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Ruslan Magomedov	15 / 25	18 / 28	0 / 0
1	Shawn Jordan	2 / 9	8 / 15	1 / 3
2	Ruslan Magomedov	26 / 39	33 / 46	0 / 0
2	Shawn Jordan	11 / 23	15 / 27	0 / 4
3	Ruslan Magomedov	30 / 52	34 / 56	0 / 0
3	Shawn Jordan	7 / 24	16 / 35	0 / 2

Shawn Jordan

StanceSouthpaw

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights10

Ruslan Magomedov

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach78.0"

Fights3