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Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Shawn Jordan won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1490
Shawn Jordan
Elo1481
Jared Cannonier editorial illustration

Shawn JordanvsJared CannonierUFC Prediction Result

UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier · Saturday, January 3, 2015Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Shawn Jordan won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 2:57

Style matchupShawn Jordan: Well-roundedvsJared Cannonier: Pressure fighter

The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.

Model Prediction: Shawn Jordan wins(66.5%)

Actual result: Shawn Jordan wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Shawn Jordan at -185 American odds

+$54 profit

$154 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Jared Cannonier is a KO finisher (64% of wins). Shawn Jordan has lost 50% of fights by KO.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Jared Cannonier (54.1%).

Tale of the Tape

Shawn Jordan
Red Corner
VS
Jared Cannonier
Blue Corner
-185
(65%)
Vegas Odds
+170
(37%)
1490
Elo
1481
41
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
6'0"
Height
5'11"
190.5 cm
Reach
195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Shawn Jordan
oldest →
L
KOvs Gabriel Gonzaga · Oct 13
L
KOvs Matt Mitrione · Mar 14
W
KOvs Jack May · Aug 14
W
KOvs Derrick Lewis · Jun 15
L
vs Ruslan Magomedov · Oct 15
latest
Jared CannonierL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Nassourdine Imavov · Jun 24
L
vs Caio Borralho · Aug 24
W
KOvs Gregory Rodrigues · Feb 25
L
vs Michael Page · Aug 25
L
DECvs Christian Leroy Duncan · Jul 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Shawn JordanMetricJared Cannonier
2.87
Strikes / min
4.42
3.30
Strikes absorbed / min
4.35
47%
Strike defense
56%
1.97
TDs / 15 min
0.54
76%
Takedown defense
64%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.43evenly matched on net striking+0.07

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1513 vs 1500Strikes25.7 vs —Takedowns0.7 vs —Sub Atts0.00 vs —Form0.2 vs 0.0
Shawn JordanJared Cannonier

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701483149515081520← oldermost recent →
Shawn Jordan(10 fights)Jared Cannonier(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +9.2|Blue -9.2
Recent Form
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Striker Score
Red -47.8|Blue +47.8
Grappler Score
Red -49.9|Blue +49.9
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Shawn JordanTargetJared Cannonier

By target zone

10
37% acc · 83%
Head
5
42% acc · 50%
1
50% acc · 8%
Body
0
0% acc
1
50% acc · 8%
Leg
5
71% acc · 50%

By position

8
32% acc · 67%
Distance
10
50% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
4
67% acc · 33%
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

1
Shawn Jordan rounds
0
even
0
Jared Cannonier rounds
Round 1Shawn Jordan edged it
Sig. strikes12
Takedowns0
Control0:03
Knockdowns1
10Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

1
KD
0
12 / 31
Sig Strikes
10 / 20
38%
Sig Str %
50%
13 / 32
Total Strikes
10 / 20
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:03
Ctrl Time
0:00

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jared Cannonier10 / 2010 / 200 / 00
1Shawn Jordan12 / 3113 / 320 / 00

Shawn Jordan

StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights10

Jared Cannonier

StanceSwitch
Height71.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights21