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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Shavkat Rakhmonov won · SUB R2

Elo1522

Elo1482

Shavkat RakhmonovvsStephen ThompsonUFC Prediction Result

UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · Saturday, December 16, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Shavkat Rakhmonov won

SUB · Round 2 · 4:56

Style matchupShavkat Rakhmonov: Submission grapplervsStephen Thompson: Striker

Striker must keep this standing. Grappler wins big if it hits the floor.

Model Prediction: Shavkat Rakhmonov wins(87.0%)

Actual result: Shavkat Rakhmonov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Shavkat Rakhmonov enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Shavkat Rakhmonov has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.

Tale of the Tape

Shavkat Rakhmonov

Red Corner

Stephen Thompson

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1522

Elo

1482

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'0"

195.58 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Shavkat RakhmonovW5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Michel Prazeres · Jun 21

KOvs Carlston Harris · Feb 22

SUBvs Neil Magny · Jun 22

SUBvs Geoff Neal · Mar 23

vs Ian Machado Garry · Dec 24

latest

Stephen ThompsonL2 streak

oldest →

vs Gilbert Burns · Jul 21

vs Belal Muhammad · Dec 21

KOvs Kevin Holland · Dec 22

KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Oct 24

vs Gabriel Bonfim · Jul 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Shavkat RakhmonovMetricStephen Thompson

3.25

Strikes / min

4.05

2.17

Strikes absorbed / min

3.00

51%

Strike defense

54%

1.40

TDs / 15 min

0.23

85%

Takedown defense

63%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.08evenly matched on net striking+1.05

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Shavkat RakhmonovStephen Thompson

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Shavkat Rakhmonov(7 fights)Stephen Thompson(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +39.6|Blue -39.6

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red -1.6|Blue +1.6

Grappler Score

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Layoff

Red -91.0|Blue +91.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Shavkat RakhmonovTargetStephen Thompson

By target zone

77% acc · 86%

Head

40% acc · 38%

80% acc · 14%

Body

100% acc · 44%

Leg

100% acc · 19%

By position

63% acc · 18%

Distance

59% acc · 81%

67% acc · 36%

Clinch

100% acc · 6%

100% acc · 46%

Ground

100% acc · 13%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Shavkat Rakhmonov rounds

even

Stephen Thompson rounds

Round 1Shavkat Rakhmonov edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control3:25

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Shavkat Rakhmonov edged it

Sig. strikes16

Takedowns1

Control4:20

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

28 / 36

Sig Strikes

16 / 25

80%

Sig Str %

62.5%

73 / 88

Total Strikes

26 / 37

1 / 5

TDs

0 / 0

16.5%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

7:45

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Stephen Thompson	10 / 14	14 / 20	0 / 0	0
1	Shavkat Rakhmonov	12 / 20	25 / 34	0 / 2	0
2	Stephen Thompson	6 / 11	12 / 17	0 / 0	0
2	Shavkat Rakhmonov	16 / 16	48 / 54	1 / 3	2

Shavkat Rakhmonov

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights7

Stephen Thompson

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights21