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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Shavkat Rakhmonov won · SUB R2

Elo1522

Elo1403

Shavkat RakhmonovvsMichel PrazeresUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · Saturday, June 26, 2021Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Shavkat Rakhmonov won

SUB · Round 2 · 2:10

Style matchupShavkat Rakhmonov: Submission grapplervsMichel Prazeres: Wrestler

Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.

Model Prediction: Shavkat Rakhmonov wins(74.7%)

Actual result: Shavkat Rakhmonov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Shavkat Rakhmonov at -305 American odds

+$33 profit

$133 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Shavkat Rakhmonov enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Shavkat Rakhmonov has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Shavkat Rakhmonov has a 25cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Shavkat Rakhmonov

Red Corner

Michel Prazeres

Blue Corner

-305

(75%)

Vegas Odds

+235

(30%)

1522

Elo

1403

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

5'6"

195.58 cm

Reach

170.18 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Shavkat RakhmonovW5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Carlston Harris · Feb 22

SUBvs Neil Magny · Jun 22

SUBvs Geoff Neal · Mar 23

SUBvs Stephen Thompson · Dec 23

vs Ian Machado Garry · Dec 24

latest

Michel Prazeres

oldest →

SUBvs Mads Burnell · Sep 17

vs Desmond Green · Feb 18

vs Zak Cummings · May 18

SUBvs Bartosz Fabinski · Nov 18

vs Ismail Naurdiev · Feb 19

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Shavkat RakhmonovMetricMichel Prazeres

3.25

Strikes / min

2.38

2.17

Strikes absorbed / min

2.51

51%

Strike defense

57%

1.40

TDs / 15 min

3.94

85%

Takedown defense

47%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.08Δ 1.21 — meaningful gap-0.13

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Shavkat RakhmonovMichel Prazeres

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Shavkat Rakhmonov(7 fights)Michel Prazeres(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +118.9|Blue -118.9

Recent Form

Red +0.7|Blue -0.7

Striker Score

Red -1.9|Blue +1.9

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red -609.0|Blue +609.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Shavkat RakhmonovTargetMichel Prazeres

By target zone

58% acc · 71%

Head

17% acc · 17%

75% acc · 29%

Body

0% acc

Leg

83% acc · 83%

By position

50% acc · 48%

Distance

43% acc · 100%

100% acc · 19%

Clinch

64% acc · 33%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Shavkat Rakhmonov rounds

even

Michel Prazeres rounds

Round 1Shavkat Rakhmonov edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns1

Control2:23

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:54Control

Round 2Shavkat Rakhmonov edged it

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control1:02

1Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:04Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

21 / 35

Sig Strikes

6 / 14

59.5%

Sig Str %

37.5%

64 / 81

Total Strikes

32 / 40

1 / 1

TDs

0 / 3

100%

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

3:25

Ctrl Time

0:58

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Michel Prazeres	5 / 10	31 / 36	0 / 2	0
1	Shavkat Rakhmonov	10 / 17	46 / 54	1 / 1	0
2	Michel Prazeres	1 / 4	1 / 4	0 / 1	0
2	Shavkat Rakhmonov	11 / 18	18 / 27	0 / 0	1

Shavkat Rakhmonov

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights7

Michel Prazeres

StanceOrthodox

Height66.0"

Reach67.0"

Fights14