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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Shavkat Rakhmonov won · U-DEC R5

Elo1522

Elo1541

Ian Machado Garry editorial illustration

Shavkat RakhmonovvsIan Machado GarryUFC Prediction Result

UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · Saturday, December 7, 2024Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Shavkat Rakhmonov won

U-DEC · Round 5 · 5:00

Style matchupShavkat Rakhmonov: Submission grapplervsIan Machado Garry: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Ian Machado Garry wins(51.0%)

Actual result: Shavkat Rakhmonov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Ian Machado Garry at +295 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Shavkat Rakhmonov enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Ian Machado Garry enters on a 5-fight win streak.

Tale of the Tape

Shavkat Rakhmonov

Red Corner

Ian Machado Garry

Blue Corner

-210

(68%)

Vegas Odds

+295

(25%)

1522

Elo

1541

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'3"

195.58 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Shavkat RakhmonovW5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Michel Prazeres · Jun 21

KOvs Carlston Harris · Feb 22

SUBvs Neil Magny · Jun 22

SUBvs Geoff Neal · Mar 23

SUBvs Stephen Thompson · Dec 23

latest

Ian Machado GarryW5 streak

oldest →

vs Neil Magny · Aug 23

vs Geoff Neal · Feb 24

vs Michael Page · Jun 24

vs Carlos Prates · Apr 25

vs Belal Muhammad · Nov 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Shavkat RakhmonovMetricIan Machado Garry

3.25

Strikes / min

4.78

2.17

Strikes absorbed / min

2.86

51%

Strike defense

52%

1.40

TDs / 15 min

0.92

85%

Takedown defense

80%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.08evenly matched on net striking+1.92

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Shavkat RakhmonovIan Machado Garry

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Shavkat Rakhmonov(7 fights)Ian Machado Garry(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -18.7|Blue +18.7

Recent Form

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Layoff

Red +196.0|Blue -196.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Shavkat RakhmonovTargetIan Machado Garry

By target zone

53% acc · 78%

Head

28% acc · 26%

60% acc · 16%

Body

67% acc · 24%

100% acc · 5%

Leg

72% acc · 50%

By position

48% acc · 65%

Distance

49% acc · 83%

75% acc · 8%

Clinch

58% acc · 17%

77% acc · 27%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Shavkat Rakhmonov rounds

even

Ian Machado Garry rounds

Round 1Shavkat Rakhmonov edged it

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control3:20

3Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:09Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control1:31

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:26Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes11

Takedowns0

Control1:11

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Round 4Shavkat Rakhmonov edged it

Sig. strikes14

Takedowns2

Control2:55

11Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

Round 5Ian Machado Garry edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control2:44

4Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:36Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

37 / 67

Sig Strikes

42 / 84

48.6%

Sig Str %

58.2%

65 / 102

Total Strikes

102 / 157

2 / 10

TDs

1 / 2

16.5%

TD %

50%

Sub Att

Rev

11:41

Ctrl Time

2:32

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Ian Machado Garry	3 / 4	14 / 17	0 / 1	0
1	Shavkat Rakhmonov	2 / 5	13 / 16	0 / 3	0
2	Ian Machado Garry	10 / 24	13 / 28	0 / 0	0
2	Shavkat Rakhmonov	9 / 18	15 / 25	0 / 1	0
3	Ian Machado Garry	14 / 34	14 / 35	0 / 0	0
3	Shavkat Rakhmonov	11 / 19	11 / 19	0 / 0	0
4	Shavkat Rakhmonov	14 / 22	19 / 30	2 / 3	0
4	Ian Machado Garry	11 / 16	23 / 31	0 / 0	0
5	Ian Machado Garry	4 / 6	38 / 46	1 / 1	2
5	Shavkat Rakhmonov	1 / 3	7 / 12	0 / 3	0

Shavkat Rakhmonov

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights7

Ian Machado Garry

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights8