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Welterweight

3 Rounds

Shavkat Rakhmonov won · KO/TKO R1

Elo1522

Elo1476

Shavkat RakhmonovvsCarlston HarrisUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland · Saturday, February 5, 2022Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Shavkat Rakhmonov won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 4:10

Style matchupShavkat Rakhmonov: Submission grapplervsCarlston Harris: Well-rounded

Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.

Model Prediction: Shavkat Rakhmonov wins(80.7%)

Actual result: Shavkat Rakhmonov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Shavkat Rakhmonov at -280 American odds

+$36 profit

$136 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Shavkat Rakhmonov enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Carlston Harris enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Shavkat Rakhmonov has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Shavkat Rakhmonov

Red Corner

Carlston Harris

Blue Corner

-280

(74%)

Vegas Odds

+225

(31%)

1522

Elo

1476

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'1"

Height

6'0"

195.58 cm

Reach

193.04 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Shavkat RakhmonovW5 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Michel Prazeres · Jun 21

SUBvs Neil Magny · Jun 22

SUBvs Geoff Neal · Mar 23

SUBvs Stephen Thompson · Dec 23

vs Ian Machado Garry · Dec 24

latest

Carlston HarrisL3 streak

oldest →

vs Jared Gooden · Mar 23

SUBvs Jeremiah Wells · Aug 23

KOvs Khaos Williams · May 24

KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · Jan 25

DECvs Jake Matthews · May 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Shavkat RakhmonovMetricCarlston Harris

3.25

Strikes / min

3.79

2.17

Strikes absorbed / min

3.46

51%

Strike defense

54%

1.40

TDs / 15 min

1.46

85%

Takedown defense

55%

1.20

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+1.08evenly matched on net striking+0.33

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Shavkat RakhmonovCarlston Harris

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Shavkat Rakhmonov(7 fights)Carlston Harris(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +45.9|Blue -45.9

Recent Form

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Striker Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.5|Blue +0.5

Layoff

Red +84.0|Blue -84.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Shavkat RakhmonovTargetCarlston Harris

By target zone

40% acc · 77%

Head

23% acc · 30%

100% acc · 23%

Body

60% acc · 60%

Leg

25% acc · 10%

By position

45% acc · 69%

Distance

32% acc · 80%

Clinch

100% acc · 20%

50% acc · 31%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Shavkat Rakhmonov rounds

even

Carlston Harris rounds

Round 1Shavkat Rakhmonov edged it

Sig. strikes13

Takedowns1

Control0:52

Knockdowns1

10Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:44Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

13 / 28

Sig Strikes

10 / 27

46%

Sig Str %

37%

16 / 31

Total Strikes

15 / 35

1 / 3

TDs

0 / 0

33%

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:52

Ctrl Time

0:44

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Carlston Harris	10 / 27	15 / 35	0 / 0	0
1	Shavkat Rakhmonov	13 / 28	16 / 31	1 / 3	0

Shavkat Rakhmonov

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights7

Carlston Harris

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach76.0"

Fights8