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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Shara Magomedov won · Decision R3

Elo1548

Elo1492

Shara MagomedovvsMichel PereiraUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · Saturday, June 27, 2026Baku, Azerbaijan

Official fight result

Shara Magomedov won

Decision · Round 3 · 5:00

Engine 7.0 was wrong

Pre-fight pick: Michel Pereira

Style matchupShara Magomedov: Pressure fightervsMichel Pereira: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Shara Magomedov wins(70.0%)

Actual result: Shara Magomedov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Tale of the Tape

Shara Magomedov

Red Corner

Michel Pereira

Blue Corner

—

Vegas Odds

—

1548

Elo

1492

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'1"

185.42 cm

Reach

185.42 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Shara Magomedov

oldest →

KOvs Antonio Trocoli · Jun 24

vs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 24

KOvs Armen Petrosyan · Oct 24

vs Michael Page · Feb 25

vs Marc-Andre Barriault · Jul 25

latest

Michel Pereira

oldest →

SUBvs Ihor Potieria · May 24

KOvs Anthony Hernandez · Oct 24

vs Abus Magomedov · Apr 25

KOvs Kyle Daukaus · Aug 25

vs Zach Reese · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Shara MagomedovMetricMichel Pereira

5.93

Strikes / min

4.46

3.85

Strikes absorbed / min

4.40

43%

Strike defense

51%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

1.21

71%

Takedown defense

75%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.70

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.08Δ 2.02 — meaningful gap+0.06

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Shara Magomedov(7 fights)Michel Pereira(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +55.7|Blue -55.7

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.4|Blue +0.4

Layoff

Red +210.0|Blue -210.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Shara MagomedovTargetMichel Pereira

By target zone

41% acc · 31%

Head

38% acc · 60%

75% acc · 35%

Body

56% acc · 26%

82% acc · 35%

Leg

45% acc · 14%

By position

59% acc · 85%

Distance

35% acc · 54%

83% acc · 10%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

75% acc · 6%

Ground

56% acc · 43%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Shara Magomedov rounds

even

Michel Pereira rounds

Round 1Michel Pereira edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:42

Knockdowns0

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:24Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Shara Magomedov edged it

Sig. strikes20

Takedowns0

Control0:00

6Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Shara Magomedov edged it

Sig. strikes26

Takedowns0

Control0:11

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:40Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

52 / 85

Sig Strikes

35 / 82

67.3%

Sig Str %

41.7%

112 / 165

Total Strikes

61 / 113

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 2

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:53

Ctrl Time

4:04

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Michel Pereira	16 / 30	37 / 56	0 / 0
1	Shara Magomedov	6 / 7	53 / 71	0 / 0
2	Michel Pereira	6 / 17	6 / 17	0 / 0
2	Shara Magomedov	20 / 35	20 / 35	0 / 0
3	Michel Pereira	13 / 35	18 / 40	0 / 2
3	Shara Magomedov	26 / 43	39 / 59	0 / 0

The Pick

Vegas favorite

—

Odds

—

Market-implied probability

No market line yet

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

No Vegas odds available yet.

No market line yet · model 47% (research) · vufc_v4_pure_sklearn_histgb_20260528_113051

🔒 Pick locked Jun 4, 2026, 3:29 PM UTC · never rewritten

Shara Magomedov

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7

Michel Pereira

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights16