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Middleweight
3 Rounds
Shara Magomedov won · U-DEC R3
Elo1548
Shara Magomedov editorial illustration
Elo1508
Michal Oleksiejczuk editorial illustration

Shara MagomedovvsMichal OleksiejczukUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · Saturday, August 3, 2024Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Shara Magomedov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupShara Magomedov: Pressure fightervsMichal Oleksiejczuk: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Shara Magomedov wins(72.9%)

Actual result: Shara Magomedov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Shara Magomedov at -345 American odds

+$29 profit

$129 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Michal Oleksiejczuk has 16pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
  • Shara Magomedov has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Michal Oleksiejczuk (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Shara Magomedov
Red Corner
VS
Michal Oleksiejczuk
Blue Corner
-345
(78%)
Vegas Odds
+250
(29%)
1548
Elo
1508
32
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'2"
Height
6'0"
185.42 cm
Reach
187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Shara MagomedovW2 streak
oldest →
W
KOvs Antonio Trocoli · Jun 24
W
KOvs Armen Petrosyan · Oct 24
L
vs Michael Page · Feb 25
W
vs Marc-Andre Barriault · Jul 25
W
DECvs Michel Pereira · Jun 26
latest
Michal Oleksiejczuk
oldest →
L
SUBvs Kevin Holland · Jun 24
W
KOvs Sedriques Dumas · Apr 25
W
KOvs Gerald Meerschaert · Aug 25
W
vs Marc-Andre Barriault · Feb 26
L
SUBvs Abus Magomedov · Jun 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Shara MagomedovMetricMichal Oleksiejczuk
5.93
Strikes / min
5.85
3.85
Strikes absorbed / min
4.50
43%
Strike defense
59%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
1.02
71%
Takedown defense
52%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.08evenly matched on net striking+1.35

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1537 vs 1514Strikes6.8 vs 5.1Takedowns0.0 vs 1.1Sub Atts0.00 vs 0.00Form1.0 vs -0.5
Shara MagomedovMichal Oleksiejczuk

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14801500152015401560← oldermost recent →
Shara Magomedov(7 fights)Michal Oleksiejczuk(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red +39.9|Blue -39.9
Recent Form
Red +1.4|Blue -1.4
Striker Score
Red -0.4|Blue +0.4
Grappler Score
Red -0.3|Blue +0.3
Layoff
Red -21.0|Blue +21.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Shara MagomedovTargetMichal Oleksiejczuk

By target zone

52
46% acc · 54%
Head
45
44% acc · 58%
33
63% acc · 34%
Body
18
67% acc · 23%
12
86% acc · 12%
Leg
14
88% acc · 18%

By position

89
55% acc · 92%
Distance
72
52% acc · 94%
8
53% acc · 8%
Clinch
4
67% acc · 5%
0
Ground
1
50% acc · 1%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

2
Shara Magomedov rounds
0
even
1
Michal Oleksiejczuk rounds
Round 1Shara Magomedov edged it
Sig. strikes40
Takedowns0
Control0:00
35Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:08Control
Round 2Shara Magomedov edged it
Sig. strikes35
Takedowns0
Control0:00
24Sig. strikes
1Takedowns
0:44Control
Round 3Michal Oleksiejczuk edged it
Sig. strikes22
Takedowns0
Control0:00
18Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
1:47Control
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
0
97 / 178
Sig Strikes
77 / 146
54.3%
Sig Str %
51.7%
123 / 209
Total Strikes
94 / 172
0 / 0
TDs
3 / 7
—
TD %
38.7%
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
2:39

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Michal Oleksiejczuk35 / 5336 / 540 / 20
1Shara Magomedov40 / 7442 / 760 / 00
2Michal Oleksiejczuk24 / 5228 / 581 / 20
2Shara Magomedov35 / 6437 / 670 / 00
3Michal Oleksiejczuk18 / 4130 / 602 / 30
3Shara Magomedov22 / 4044 / 660 / 00

Shara Magomedov

StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights7

Michal Oleksiejczuk

StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights18