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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Michael Page won · U-DEC R3

Elo1548

Elo1545

Shara MagomedovvsMichael PageUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · Saturday, February 1, 2025Riyadh, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

Official fight result

Michael Page won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Model Prediction: Michael Page wins(52.0%)

Actual result: Michael Page wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Michael Page at +164 American odds

+$164 profit

$264 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Shara Magomedov enters on a 5-fight win streak.
Michael Page has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Stance matchup historically favors Michael Page (52.9%).
Michael Page has a 15cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Shara Magomedov

Red Corner

Michael Page

Blue Corner

-196

(66%)

Vegas Odds

+164

(38%)

1548

Elo

1545

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

6'2"

Height

6'3"

185.42 cm

Reach

200.66 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Shara MagomedovW5 streak

oldest →

KOvs Antonio Trocoli · Jun 24

vs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 24

KOvs Armen Petrosyan · Oct 24

vs Marc-Andre Barriault · Jul 25

DECvs Michel Pereira · Jun 26

latest

Michael PageW2 streak

oldest →

vs Kevin Holland · Mar 24

vs Ian Machado Garry · Jun 24

vs Jared Cannonier · Aug 25

vs Sam Patterson · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Shara MagomedovMetricMichael Page

5.93

Strikes / min

2.28

3.85

Strikes absorbed / min

1.51

43%

Strike defense

62%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.19

71%

Takedown defense

70%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.08Δ 1.31 — meaningful gap+0.77

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Shara MagomedovMichael Page

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Shara Magomedov(7 fights)Michael Page(5 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +2.6|Blue -2.6

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red +0.3|Blue -0.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -119.0|Blue +119.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Shara MagomedovTargetMichael Page

By target zone

19% acc · 21%

Head

43% acc · 53%

85% acc · 45%

Body

92% acc · 26%

52% acc · 34%

Leg

90% acc · 21%

By position

41% acc · 89%

Distance

55% acc · 88%

80% acc · 11%

Clinch

83% acc · 12%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Shara Magomedov rounds

even

Michael Page rounds

Round 1Michael Page edged it

Sig. strikes9

Takedowns0

Control0:00

13Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:16Control

Round 2Michael Page edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns0

Control0:00

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:34Control

Round 3Shara Magomedov edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:40

16Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

38 / 87

Sig Strikes

43 / 75

42.3%

Sig Str %

57.3%

50 / 102

Total Strikes

47 / 81

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 1

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:40

Ctrl Time

0:50

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Michael Page	13 / 21	13 / 21	0 / 1
1	Shara Magomedov	9 / 25	9 / 25	0 / 0
2	Michael Page	14 / 25	15 / 26	0 / 0
2	Shara Magomedov	7 / 30	9 / 32	0 / 0
3	Michael Page	16 / 29	19 / 34	0 / 0
3	Shara Magomedov	22 / 32	32 / 45	0 / 0

Shara Magomedov

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7

Michael Page

StanceSwitch

Height75.0"

Reach79.0"

Fights5