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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Shara Magomedov won · U-DEC R3

Elo1548

Elo1478

Shara MagomedovvsMarc-Andre BarriaultUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · Saturday, July 26, 2025Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Shara Magomedov won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupShara Magomedov: Pressure fightervsMarc-Andre Barriault: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Shara Magomedov wins(82.4%)

Actual result: Shara Magomedov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Shara Magomedov at -650 American odds

+$15 profit

$115 total returned

Tale of the Tape

Shara Magomedov

Red Corner

Marc-Andre Barriault

Blue Corner

-650

(87%)

Vegas Odds

+480

(17%)

1548

Elo

1478

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'1"

185.42 cm

Reach

187.96 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Shara Magomedov

oldest →

KOvs Antonio Trocoli · Jun 24

vs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 24

KOvs Armen Petrosyan · Oct 24

vs Michael Page · Feb 25

DECvs Michel Pereira · Jun 26

latest

Marc-Andre Barriault

oldest →

vs Chris Curtis · Jan 24

KOvs Joe Pyfer · Jun 24

KOvs Dustin Stoltzfus · Nov 24

KOvs Bruno Silva · May 25

vs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Feb 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Shara MagomedovMetricMarc-Andre Barriault

5.93

Strikes / min

5.65

3.85

Strikes absorbed / min

5.94

43%

Strike defense

49%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.34

71%

Takedown defense

68%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.08Δ 2.37 — meaningful gap-0.29

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Shara MagomedovMarc-Andre Barriault

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Shara Magomedov(7 fights)Marc-Andre Barriault(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +70.0|Blue -70.0

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +98.0|Blue -98.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Shara MagomedovTargetMarc-Andre Barriault

By target zone

51% acc · 45%

Head

44% acc · 62%

82% acc · 29%

Body

68% acc · 33%

89% acc · 26%

Leg

50% acc · 5%

By position

62% acc · 62%

Distance

38% acc · 54%

77% acc · 32%

Clinch

86% acc · 46%

50% acc · 5%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Shara Magomedov rounds

even

Marc-Andre Barriault rounds

Round 1Shara Magomedov edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns0

Control0:17

5Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:27Control

Round 2Even round

Sig. strikes37

Takedowns0

Control0:11

29Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:47Control

Round 3Shara Magomedov edged it

Sig. strikes34

Takedowns0

Control0:29

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:16Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

93 / 142

Sig Strikes

39 / 77

65.3%

Sig Str %

41.7%

103 / 153

Total Strikes

60 / 100

0 / 1

TDs

2 / 6

TD %

33.3%

Sub Att

Rev

0:57

Ctrl Time

4:30

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Marc-Andre Barriault	5 / 17	12 / 24	1 / 2
1	Shara Magomedov	22 / 36	23 / 37	0 / 0
2	Marc-Andre Barriault	29 / 44	39 / 55	1 / 2
2	Shara Magomedov	37 / 61	37 / 61	0 / 0
3	Marc-Andre Barriault	5 / 16	9 / 21	0 / 2
3	Shara Magomedov	34 / 45	43 / 55	0 / 1

Shara Magomedov

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7

Marc-Andre Barriault

StanceOrthodox

Height73.0"

Reach74.0"

Fights17