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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Shara Magomedov won · KO/TKO R2

Elo1548

Elo1484

Shara MagomedovvsArmen PetrosyanUFC Prediction Result

UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Saturday, October 26, 2024Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates

Official fight result

Shara Magomedov won

KO/TKO · Round 2 · 4:52

Style matchupShara Magomedov: Pressure fightervsArmen Petrosyan: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Shara Magomedov wins(72.0%)

Actual result: Shara Magomedov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Shara Magomedov at -166 American odds

+$60 profit

$160 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Armen Petrosyan has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Shara Magomedov has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Shara Magomedov

Red Corner

Armen Petrosyan

Blue Corner

-166

(62%)

Vegas Odds

+140

(42%)

1548

Elo

1484

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'3"

185.42 cm

Reach

180.34 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Shara MagomedovW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Antonio Trocoli · Jun 24

vs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 24

vs Michael Page · Feb 25

vs Marc-Andre Barriault · Jul 25

DECvs Michel Pereira · Jun 26

latest

Armen PetrosyanL2 streak

oldest →

vs Caio Borralho · Jul 22

vs AJ Dobson · Oct 22

vs Christian Leroy Duncan · Jun 23

SUBvs Rodolfo Vieira · Feb 24

SUBvs Brunno Ferreira · Mar 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Shara MagomedovMetricArmen Petrosyan

5.93

Strikes / min

5.84

3.85

Strikes absorbed / min

3.31

43%

Strike defense

53%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.17

71%

Takedown defense

41%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.00

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.08evenly matched on net striking+2.53

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Shara MagomedovArmen Petrosyan

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Shara Magomedov(7 fights)Armen Petrosyan(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +63.9|Blue -63.9

Recent Form

Red +1.1|Blue -1.1

Striker Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red -175.0|Blue +175.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Shara MagomedovTargetArmen Petrosyan

By target zone

45% acc · 37%

Head

33% acc · 29%

85% acc · 45%

Body

71% acc · 13%

63% acc · 18%

Leg

75% acc · 58%

By position

61% acc · 97%

Distance

54% acc · 97%

100% acc · 3%

Clinch

100% acc · 3%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Shara Magomedov rounds

even

Armen Petrosyan rounds

Round 1Armen Petrosyan edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:00

46Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:08Control

Round 2Shara Magomedov edged it

Sig. strikes32

Takedowns0

Control0:02

Knockdowns1

31Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

0Knockdowns

Fight Stats

Totals

65 / 106

Sig Strikes

77 / 140

61.5%

Sig Str %

54%

67 / 108

Total Strikes

77 / 141

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:02

Ctrl Time

0:21

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Armen Petrosyan	46 / 81	46 / 81	0 / 0
1	Shara Magomedov	33 / 49	35 / 51	0 / 0
2	Armen Petrosyan	31 / 59	31 / 60	0 / 0
2	Shara Magomedov	32 / 57	32 / 57	0 / 0

Shara Magomedov

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7

Armen Petrosyan

StanceOrthodox

Height75.0"

Reach71.0"

Fights7