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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Shara Magomedov won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1548

Elo1429

Shara MagomedovvsAntonio TrocoliUFC Prediction Result

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · Saturday, June 22, 2024Riyadh, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

Official fight result

Shara Magomedov won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 2:27

Model Prediction: Shara Magomedov wins(75.1%)

Actual result: Shara Magomedov wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Shara Magomedov at -810 American odds

+$12 profit

$112 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Antonio Trocoli enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Shara Magomedov has 17pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Shara Magomedov has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Antonio Trocoli has a 18cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Shara Magomedov

Red Corner

Antonio Trocoli

Blue Corner

-810

(89%)

Vegas Odds

+500

(17%)

1548

Elo

1429

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'5"

185.42 cm

Reach

203.2 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Shara MagomedovW2 streak

oldest →

vs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 24

KOvs Armen Petrosyan · Oct 24

vs Michael Page · Feb 25

vs Marc-Andre Barriault · Jul 25

DECvs Michel Pereira · Jun 26

latest

Antonio TrocoliL3 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Tresean Gore · Nov 24

SUBvs Mansur Abdul-Malik · Dec 25

vs Mantas Kondratavicius · Mar 26

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Shara MagomedovMetricAntonio Trocoli

5.93

Strikes / min

1.27

3.85

Strikes absorbed / min

5.30

43%

Strike defense

26%

0.00

TDs / 15 min

0.88

71%

Takedown defense

42%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.40

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+2.08Δ 6.11 — meaningful gap-4.03

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Shara MagomedovAntonio Trocoli

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Shara Magomedov(7 fights)Antonio Trocoli(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +119.2|Blue -119.2

Recent Form

Red +1.0|Blue -1.0

Striker Score

Red -49.3|Blue +49.3

Grappler Score

Red -50.0|Blue +50.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Shara MagomedovTargetAntonio Trocoli

By target zone

54% acc · 34%

Head

36% acc · 50%

92% acc · 27%

Body

70% acc · 44%

100% acc · 39%

Leg

50% acc · 6%

By position

73% acc · 84%

Distance

41% acc · 75%

93% acc · 16%

Clinch

80% acc · 25%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Shara Magomedov rounds

even

Antonio Trocoli rounds

Round 1Even round

Sig. strikes19

Takedowns0

Control0:00

12Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

3:05Control

Round 2Shara Magomedov edged it

Sig. strikes30

Takedowns0

Control0:17

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:37Control

Round 3Shara Magomedov edged it

Sig. strikes33

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns1

0Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

82 / 108

Sig Strikes

16 / 34

75%

Sig Str %

35.3%

108 / 136

Total Strikes

39 / 77

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 7

—

TD %

Sub Att

Rev

0:17

Ctrl Time

4:42

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Antonio Trocoli	12 / 17	26 / 41	0 / 3
1	Shara Magomedov	19 / 27	39 / 48	0 / 0
2	Antonio Trocoli	4 / 11	13 / 30	0 / 4
2	Shara Magomedov	30 / 40	36 / 47	0 / 0
3	Antonio Trocoli	0 / 6	0 / 6	0 / 0
3	Shara Magomedov	33 / 41	33 / 41	0 / 0

Shara Magomedov

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach73.0"

Fights7

Antonio Trocoli

StanceOrthodox

Height77.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights4