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Flyweight
3 Rounds
Jesus Aguilar won · KO/TKO R1
Elo1479
Shannon Ross
Elo1503

Shannon RossvsJesus AguilarUFC Prediction Result

UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · Saturday, July 8, 2023Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Official fight result

Jesus Aguilar won

KO/TKO · Round 1 · 0:17

Style matchupShannon Ross: Pressure fightervsJesus Aguilar: Submission grappler

The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.

Model Prediction: Jesus Aguilar wins(62.3%)

Actual result: Jesus Aguilar wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Jesus Aguilar at -152 American odds

+$66 profit

$166 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

  • Shannon Ross has 55pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
  • Stance matchup historically favors Shannon Ross (52.9%).
  • Shannon Ross has a 10cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Shannon Ross
Red Corner
VS
Jesus Aguilar
Blue Corner
+128
(44%)
Vegas Odds
-152
(60%)
1479
Elo
1503
37
Age
30
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'6"
Height
5'4"
167.64 cm
Reach
157.48 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Shannon RossL2 streak
oldest →
L
KOvs Kleydson Rodrigues · Feb 23
L
KOvs HyunSung Park · Dec 23
latest
Jesus Aguilar
oldest →
W
vs Mateus Mendonca · Feb 24
W
SUBvs Stewart Nicoll · Aug 24
L
vs Rafael Estevam · Feb 25
W
vs Luis Gurule · Sep 25
L
vs Sumudaerji · Mar 26
latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Shannon RossMetricJesus Aguilar
5.96
Strikes / min
2.54
7.39
Strikes absorbed / min
2.29
55%
Strike defense
61%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
1.52
100%
Takedown defense
45%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-1.43Δ 1.68 — meaningful gap+0.25

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Elo1483 vs 1485Strikes6.0 vs 1.5Takedowns0.0 vs 1.8Sub Atts0.00 vs 1.80Form-1.0 vs -1.0
Shannon RossJesus Aguilar

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

14701485150015151530← oldermost recent →
Shannon Ross(3 fights)Jesus Aguilar(7 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating
Red -23.5|Blue +23.5
Recent Form
Red -0.0|Blue +0.0
EVEN
Striker Score
Red +0.2|Blue -0.2
Grappler Score
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Layoff
Red -7.0|Blue +7.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Shannon RossTargetJesus Aguilar

By target zone

1
50% acc · 50%
Head
1
100% acc · 50%
1
100% acc · 50%
Body
0
0
Leg
1
50% acc · 50%

By position

2
67% acc · 100%
Distance
2
67% acc · 100%
0
Clinch
0
0
Ground
0

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

0
Shannon Ross rounds
0
even
1
Jesus Aguilar rounds
Round 1Jesus Aguilar edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:00
Knockdowns0
2Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:01Control
1Knockdowns
Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

0
KD
1
2 / 3
Sig Strikes
2 / 3
66%
Sig Str %
66%
2 / 3
Total Strikes
2 / 3
0 / 0
TDs
0 / 0
—
TD %
—
0
Sub Att
0
0
Rev
0
0:00
Ctrl Time
0:01

Round-by-Round

RoundFighterSig StrTotal StrTDSub
1Jesus Aguilar2 / 32 / 30 / 00
1Shannon Ross2 / 32 / 30 / 00

Shannon Ross

StanceSwitch
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights3

Jesus Aguilar

StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach62.0"
Fights7