Featherweight

3 Rounds

Shane Young won · U-DEC R3

Elo1473

Elo1491

Shane YoungvsAustin ArnettUFC Prediction Result

UFC 234: Adesanya vs. Silva · Saturday, February 9, 2019Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Official fight result

Shane Young won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupShane Young: Pressure fightervsAustin Arnett: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Shane Young wins(57.6%)

Actual result: Shane Young wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Shane Young at -380 American odds

+$26 profit

$126 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Shane Young enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Austin Arnett has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.

Tale of the Tape

Shane Young

Red Corner

Austin Arnett

Blue Corner

-380

(79%)

Vegas Odds

+315

(24%)

1473

Elo

1491

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'8"

Height

6'0"

182.88 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Shane YoungL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Rolando Dy · Jun 18

KOvs Ludovit Klein · Sep 20

vs Omar Morales · Mar 21

vs Blake Bilder · Feb 23

SUBvs Gabriel Miranda · Sep 23

latest

Austin Arnett

oldest →

KOvs Cory Sandhagen · Jan 18

vs Hakeem Dawodu · Jul 18

vs Humberto Bandenay · Nov 18

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Shane YoungMetricAustin Arnett

5.19

Strikes / min

4.52

5.46

Strikes absorbed / min

6.38

52%

Strike defense

62%

0.63

TDs / 15 min

0.44

64%

Takedown defense

57%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.20

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.27Δ 1.59 — meaningful gap-1.86

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Shane YoungAustin Arnett

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Shane Young(7 fights)Austin Arnett(4 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -18.7|Blue +18.7

Recent Form

Red +0.4|Blue -0.4

Striker Score

Red -0.7|Blue +0.7

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +147.0|Blue -147.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Shane YoungTargetAustin Arnett

By target zone

29% acc · 57%

Head

36% acc · 94%

70% acc · 27%

Body

50% acc · 4%

76% acc · 16%

Leg

100% acc · 3%

By position

119

39% acc · 99%

Distance

37% acc · 99%

100% acc · 1%

Clinch

100% acc · 1%

Ground

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Shane Young rounds

even

Austin Arnett rounds

Round 1Shane Young edged it

Sig. strikes39

Takedowns0

Control0:08

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 2Shane Young edged it

Sig. strikes41

Takedowns0

Control0:09

30Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Shane Young edged it

Sig. strikes40

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns1

26Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

120 / 308

Sig Strikes

77 / 209

38.7%

Sig Str %

36.3%

121 / 309

Total Strikes

78 / 210

0 / 2

TDs

0 / 0

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:17

Ctrl Time

0:00

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Austin Arnett	21 / 65	21 / 65	0 / 0
1	Shane Young	39 / 108	40 / 109	0 / 1
2	Austin Arnett	30 / 72	31 / 73	0 / 0
2	Shane Young	41 / 94	41 / 94	0 / 1
3	Austin Arnett	26 / 72	26 / 72	0 / 0
3	Shane Young	40 / 106	40 / 106	0 / 0

Shane Young

StanceOrthodox

Height68.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights7

Austin Arnett

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights4