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Lightweight

3 Rounds

TJ Grant won · SUB R3

Elo1490

Elo1490

Shane RollervsTJ GrantUFC Prediction Result

UFC Live: Cruz vs Johnson · Saturday, October 1, 2011Washington, DC, USA

Official fight result

TJ Grant won

SUB · Round 3 · 2:12

Model Prediction: TJ Grant wins(59.6%)

Actual result: TJ Grant wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

TJ Grant at +164 American odds

+$164 profit

$264 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

TJ Grant enters on a 4-fight win streak.

Tale of the Tape

Shane Roller

Red Corner

TJ Grant

Blue Corner

-174

(64%)

Vegas Odds

+164

(38%)

1490

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'10"

Height

5'10"

182.88 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Shane Roller

oldest →

KOvs Thiago Tavares · Mar 11

KOvs Melvin Guillard · Jul 11

vs Michael Johnson · Jan 12

vs John Alessio · Jul 12

SUBvs Jacob Volkmann · Oct 12

latest

TJ GrantW4 streak

oldest →

vs Ricardo Almeida · Dec 10

vs Carlo Prater · May 12

vs Evan Dunham · Sep 12

KOvs Matt Wiman · Jan 13

KOvs Gray Maynard · May 13

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Shane RollerMetricTJ Grant

2.04

Strikes / min

3.95

2.65

Strikes absorbed / min

3.21

60%

Strike defense

56%

2.46

TDs / 15 min

1.63

42%

Takedown defense

36%

1.90

Sub atts / 15 min

0.60

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-0.61Δ 1.35 — meaningful gap+0.74

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Shane RollerTJ Grant

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Shane Roller(6 fights)TJ Grant(8 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red 0.0|Blue 0.0

EVEN

Recent Form

Red +0.2|Blue -0.2

Striker Score

Red -1.3|Blue +1.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -203.0|Blue +203.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Shane RollerTargetTJ Grant

By target zone

17% acc · 100%

Head

34% acc · 83%

Body

0% acc

Leg

100% acc · 17%

By position

16% acc · 90%

Distance

34% acc · 71%

25% acc · 10%

Clinch

50% acc · 8%

Ground

50% acc · 21%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Shane Roller rounds

even

TJ Grant rounds

Round 1TJ Grant edged it

Sig. strikes1

Takedowns0

Control0:36

8Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

3:20Control

Round 2TJ Grant edged it

Sig. strikes7

Takedowns1

Control1:34

12Sig. strikes

1Takedowns

1:36Control

Round 3Even round

Sig. strikes2

Takedowns0

Control0:35

4Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:02Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

10 / 60

Sig Strikes

24 / 64

14.7%

Sig Str %

37.3%

11 / 61

Total Strikes

64 / 104

1 / 3

TDs

2 / 2

25%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

2:45

Ctrl Time

4:58

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	TJ Grant	8 / 16	40 / 48	1 / 1	0
1	Shane Roller	1 / 15	1 / 15	0 / 0	1
2	TJ Grant	12 / 29	20 / 37	1 / 1	1
2	Shane Roller	7 / 24	8 / 25	1 / 2	1
3	TJ Grant	4 / 19	4 / 19	0 / 0	2
3	Shane Roller	2 / 21	2 / 21	0 / 1	0

Shane Roller

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights6

TJ Grant

StanceOrthodox

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights8