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Heavyweight

5 Rounds

Junior Dos Santos won · U-DEC R3

Elo1351

Elo1393

Shane CarwinvsJunior Dos SantosUFC Prediction Result

UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin · Saturday, June 11, 2011Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada

Official fight result

Junior Dos Santos won

U-DEC · Round 3 · 5:00

Style matchupShane Carwin: Pressure fightervsJunior Dos Santos: Striker

The pressure fighter will force exchanges. The cleaner striker needs lateral movement.

Model Prediction: Junior Dos Santos wins(61.2%)

Actual result: Junior Dos Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Junior Dos Santos at -155 American odds

+$65 profit

$165 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Junior Dos Santos enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
Shane Carwin is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Junior Dos Santos has lost 88% of fights by KO.
Junior Dos Santos has 39pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.

Tale of the Tape

Shane Carwin

Red Corner

Junior Dos Santos

Blue Corner

+145

(41%)

Vegas Odds

-155

(61%)

1351

Elo

1393

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'4"

203.2 cm

Reach

195.58 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Shane Carwin

oldest →

KOvs Frank Mir · Mar 10

SUBvs Brock Lesnar · Jul 10

latest

Junior Dos SantosL4 streak

oldest →

KOvs Derrick Lewis · Mar 19

KOvs Francis Ngannou · Jun 19

KOvs Curtis Blaydes · Jan 20

KOvs Jairzinho Rozenstruik · Aug 20

KOvs Ciryl Gane · Dec 20

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Shane CarwinMetricJunior Dos Santos

4.38

Strikes / min

4.49

3.53

Strikes absorbed / min

3.33

53%

Strike defense

56%

1.42

TDs / 15 min

0.30

42%

Takedown defense

81%

0.00

Sub atts / 15 min

0.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.85evenly matched on net striking+1.16

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Shane CarwinJunior Dos Santos

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Shane Carwin(3 fights)Junior Dos Santos(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -41.6|Blue +41.6

Recent Form

Red -1.1|Blue +1.1

Striker Score

Red -0.8|Blue +0.8

Grappler Score

Red +0.1|Blue -0.1

Layoff

Red +35.0|Blue -35.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Shane CarwinTargetJunior Dos Santos

By target zone

20% acc · 85%

Head

44% acc · 83%

Body

56% acc · 11%

100% acc · 15%

Leg

100% acc · 6%

By position

23% acc · 100%

Distance

43% acc · 76%

Clinch

100% acc · 2%

Ground

66% acc · 22%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Shane Carwin rounds

even

Junior Dos Santos rounds

Round 1Junior Dos Santos edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns0

Control0:24

Knockdowns0

41Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:30Control

1Knockdowns

Round 2Junior Dos Santos edged it

Sig. strikes10

Takedowns0

Control0:00

24Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:00Control

Round 3Junior Dos Santos edged it

Sig. strikes5

Takedowns1

Control0:32

23Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

0:13Control

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

20 / 86

Sig Strikes

88 / 188

22.3%

Sig Str %

45.7%

22 / 88

Total Strikes

104 / 212

1 / 3

TDs

2 / 2

50%

TD %

100%

Sub Att

Rev

0:56

Ctrl Time

0:43

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD
1	Junior Dos Santos	41 / 74	52 / 93	0 / 0
1	Shane Carwin	5 / 23	7 / 25	0 / 2
2	Junior Dos Santos	24 / 61	24 / 61	0 / 0
2	Shane Carwin	10 / 38	10 / 38	0 / 0
3	Junior Dos Santos	23 / 53	28 / 58	2 / 2
3	Shane Carwin	5 / 25	5 / 25	1 / 1

Shane Carwin

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights3

Junior Dos Santos

StanceOrthodox

Height76.0"

Reach77.0"

Fights19