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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Shane Burgos won · KO/TKO R3

Elo1496

Elo1453

Shane BurgosvsMakwan AmirkhaniUFC Prediction Result

UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · Saturday, November 2, 2019New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Shane Burgos won

KO/TKO · Round 3 · 4:32

Style matchupShane Burgos: Pressure fightervsMakwan Amirkhani: Wrestler

The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.

Model Prediction: Makwan Amirkhani wins(75.6%)

Actual result: Shane Burgos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Incorrect

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Makwan Amirkhani at +180 American odds

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Shane Burgos has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Shane Burgos has 56pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Stance matchup historically favors Makwan Amirkhani (53.5%).

Tale of the Tape

Shane Burgos

Red Corner

Makwan Amirkhani

Blue Corner

-220

(69%)

Vegas Odds

+180

(36%)

1496

Elo

1453

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Southpaw

5'11"

Height

5'10"

190.5 cm

Reach

182.88 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Shane BurgosW2 streak

oldest →

vs Cub Swanson · May 19

vs Josh Emmett · Jun 20

KOvs Edson Barboza · May 21

vs Billy Quarantillo · Nov 21

vs Charles Jourdain · Jul 22

latest

Makwan AmirkhaniL2 streak

oldest →

vs Kamuela Kirk · Jun 21

KOvs Lerone Murphy · Oct 21

SUBvs Mike Grundy · Mar 22

KOvs Jonathan Pearce · Jul 22

SUBvs Jack Shore · Mar 23

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Shane BurgosMetricMakwan Amirkhani

7.40

Strikes / min

1.33

6.78

Strikes absorbed / min

2.98

56%

Strike defense

46%

0.43

TDs / 15 min

3.96

91%

Takedown defense

35%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.62Δ 2.27 — meaningful gap-1.65

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Shane BurgosMakwan Amirkhani

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Shane Burgos(10 fights)Makwan Amirkhani(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +42.9|Blue -42.9

Recent Form

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Striker Score

Red +3.3|Blue -3.3

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +28.0|Blue -28.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Shane BurgosTargetMakwan Amirkhani

By target zone

56% acc · 58%

Head

46% acc · 95%

95% acc · 39%

Body

50% acc · 5%

75% acc · 3%

Leg

By position

50% acc · 37%

Distance

45% acc · 95%

88% acc · 14%

Clinch

85% acc · 49%

Ground

100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Shane Burgos rounds

even

Makwan Amirkhani rounds

Round 1Makwan Amirkhani edged it

Sig. strikes6

Takedowns0

Control0:36

8Sig. strikes

3Takedowns

2:45Control

Round 2Shane Burgos edged it

Sig. strikes27

Takedowns0

Control1:12

5Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:16Control

Round 3Shane Burgos edged it

Sig. strikes72

Takedowns0

Control1:43

Knockdowns1

9Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:18Control

0Knockdowns

Statistical round count agrees with the official result.

Fight Stats

Totals

105 / 155

Sig Strikes

22 / 48

57.3%

Sig Str %

46%

161 / 217

Total Strikes

23 / 49

0 / 0

TDs

3 / 19

—

TD %

10%

Sub Att

Rev

3:31

Ctrl Time

4:19

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Makwan Amirkhani	8 / 14	9 / 15	3 / 10	1
1	Shane Burgos	6 / 17	16 / 27	0 / 0	0
2	Makwan Amirkhani	5 / 16	5 / 16	0 / 5	0
2	Shane Burgos	27 / 44	61 / 83	0 / 0	0
3	Makwan Amirkhani	9 / 18	9 / 18	0 / 4	0
3	Shane Burgos	72 / 94	84 / 107	0 / 0	0

Shane Burgos

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11

Makwan Amirkhani

StanceSouthpaw

Height70.0"

Reach72.0"

Fights14