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Featherweight

3 Rounds

Shane Burgos won · SUB R1

Elo1496

Elo1490

Shane BurgosvsKurt HolobaughUFC Prediction Result

UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis · Saturday, November 3, 2018New York City, New York, USA

Official fight result

Shane Burgos won

SUB · Round 1 · 2:11

Style matchupShane Burgos: Pressure fightervsKurt Holobaugh: Pressure fighter

Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.

Model Prediction: Shane Burgos wins(52.6%)

Actual result: Shane Burgos wins · Model version: ufc_v6_2_pure_lightgbm_20260715_055615

Correct

Hypothetical $100 stake on the replay pick

Shane Burgos at -400 American odds

+$25 profit

$125 total returned

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Shane Burgos has 53pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Shane Burgos has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Shane Burgos

Red Corner

Kurt Holobaugh

Blue Corner

-400

(80%)

Vegas Odds

+325

(24%)

1496

Elo

1490

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

5'11"

Height

5'11"

190.5 cm

Reach

177.8 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Shane BurgosW2 streak

oldest →

KOvs Makwan Amirkhani · Nov 19

vs Josh Emmett · Jun 20

KOvs Edson Barboza · May 21

vs Billy Quarantillo · Nov 21

vs Charles Jourdain · Jul 22

latest

Kurt HolobaughL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Austin Hubbard · Aug 23

vs Trey Ogden · Mar 24

vs Kaynan Kruschewsky · Jul 24

vs Alexander Hernandez · Mar 25

SUBvs Jordan Leavitt · May 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Shane BurgosMetricKurt Holobaugh

7.40

Strikes / min

4.58

6.78

Strikes absorbed / min

4.24

56%

Strike defense

49%

0.43

TDs / 15 min

0.65

91%

Takedown defense

38%

0.40

Sub atts / 15 min

0.80

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

+0.62evenly matched on net striking+0.34

Statistical Profile

Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions

Shane BurgosKurt Holobaugh

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Shane Burgos(10 fights)Kurt Holobaugh(9 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red +6.4|Blue -6.4

Recent Form

Red +1.2|Blue -1.2

Striker Score

Red +2.2|Blue -2.2

Grappler Score

Red -0.1|Blue +0.1

Layoff

Red +175.0|Blue -175.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Shane BurgosTargetKurt Holobaugh

By target zone

68% acc · 76%

Head

35% acc · 67%

67% acc · 12%

Body

50% acc · 5%

100% acc · 12%

Leg

67% acc · 29%

By position

71% acc · 100%

Distance

40% acc · 90%

Clinch

50% acc · 5%

Ground

100% acc · 5%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Shane Burgos rounds

even

Kurt Holobaugh rounds

Round 1Kurt Holobaugh edged it

Sig. strikes17

Takedowns0

Control0:00

Knockdowns0

21Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

0:13Control

1Knockdowns

Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.

Fight Stats

Totals

17 / 24

Sig Strikes

21 / 51

70%

Sig Str %

41%

17 / 24

Total Strikes

26 / 57

0 / 0

TDs

0 / 0

—

TD %

—

Sub Att

Rev

0:00

Ctrl Time

0:13

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Kurt Holobaugh	21 / 51	26 / 57	0 / 0	0
1	Shane Burgos	17 / 24	17 / 24	0 / 0	1

Shane Burgos

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11

Kurt Holobaugh

StanceOrthodox

Height71.0"

Reach70.0"

Fights9